Ahead of the 2026-27 regular season, Alex Ovechkin suffered a lower-body injury and didn’t appear in a preseason game. Forty-one years old and in his 22nd and final NHL season, Ovechkin’s training camp has essentially been the start of the regular season.
And the early returns have not been great.
Ovechkin is, points-wise, experiencing the joint-worst seven-game scoring start of his NHL career, recording just one goal and three points. He previously managed three points through seven games during the lockout-shortened 2012–13 season, before recovering to win the Maurice “Rocket” Richard and Hart Trophies.
Alex Ovechkin’s First Seven Games by NHL Season
| Rank | Season | Goals | Assists | Points | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T-1 | 2026–27 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| T-1 | 2012–13 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 3 | 2008–09 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 37 |
| T-4 | 2025–26 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
| T-4 | 2024–25 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| T-4 | 2016–17 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 29 |
The bigger concern, however, is his five-on-five analytics, which suggest he is bordering on unplayable.
Through Washington’s first seven games, the Capitals have been out-attempted 80-50, out-chanced 35-21, and surrendered 21 high-danger chances while creating just 11 of their own with Ovechkin on the ice. The expected-goals numbers paint an even uglier picture, with opponents holding a jaw-dropping 5.02-1.99 advantage, despite Ovechkin getting no defensive-zone starts.
That leaves Ovechkin with a 28.4 percent expected-goals percentage, the worst mark on the Capitals among the 16 skaters who have played at least 60 minutes at five-on-five this season.
Capitals 2026–27 Five-on-Five Expected Goals Rankings
Among Capitals skaters who have appeared in at least 60 five-on-five minutes, per Natural Stat Trick.
| Rank | Player | xGF | xGA | xG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Ovechkin | 1.99 | 5.02 | 28.41% |
| 2 | Ilya Protas | 2.21 | 4.06 | 35.22% |
| 3 | Anthony Beauvillier | 2.60 | 4.00 | 39.41% |
| 4 | Aliaksei Protas | 3.12 | 4.15 | 42.94% |
| 5 | Timothy Liljegren | 5.45 | 7.10 | 43.42% |
| 6 | Ryan Leonard | 4.60 | 5.44 | 45.85% |
| 7 | Vincent Desharnais | 4.03 | 4.51 | 47.21% |
| 8 | Boone Jenner | 4.30 | 4.54 | 48.64% |
| 9 | Jakob Chychrun | 7.58 | 7.91 | 48.93% |
| 10 | Martin Fehérváry | 4.66 | 4.83 | 49.09% |
| 11 | Justin Sourdif | 3.49 | 3.19 | 52.24% |
| 12 | Dylan Strome | 4.55 | 3.85 | 54.13% |
| 13 | Jordan Kyrou | 4.16 | 3.50 | 54.31% |
| 14 | Cole Hutson | 6.69 | 5.07 | 56.91% |
| 15 | Tom Wilson | 5.39 | 3.76 | 58.95% |
| 16 | Alex Tuch | 5.99 | 3.88 | 60.71% |
The numbers don’t look much better when compared to the rest of the NHL. Among the 308 forwards who have played at least 60 five-on-five minutes, Ovechkin ranks 299th in expected-goals percentage, 292nd in shot-attempt percentage, 283rd in scoring-chance percentage, and 282nd in high-danger chance percentage.
How Alex Ovechkin Ranks Through Seven Games (5-on-5)
| Statistic | Percentage | Capitals Rank | NHL Forwards Rank | NHL Skaters Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shot Attempts | 38.5% | 16th of 16 | 292nd of 308 | 460th of 487 |
| Scoring Chances | 37.5% | 15th of 16 | 283rd of 308 | 442nd of 487 |
| High-Danger Chances | 34.4% | 14th of 16 | 282nd of 308 | 446th of 487 |
| Expected Goals | 28.4% | 16th of 16 | 299th of 308 | 476th of 487 |
Per: Natural Stat Trick. All statistics represent unadjusted five-on-five on-ice percentages. Rankings include players with at least 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time through October 14, 2026.
What’s especially concerning is that these struggles have come despite very favorable deployment. Ovechkin has started 15 shifts in the offensive zone and not received a single start in the defensive zone at five-on-five. He’s arguably been the most protected player in the NHL the past two seasons.
And then there’s this. When Ovechkin’s longtime centerman Nicklas Backstrom stepped away from the team in 2023-24 due to hip-related issues, he played just eight games. In those October appearances, Backstrom posted just one point, an assist, but his five-on-five numbers were better than Ovechkin’s despite playing center, an even more exposing and demanding position.
Nicklas Backstrom (2023–24) vs. Alex Ovechkin (2026–27): Five-on-Five Statistics
| Statistic | Nicklas Backstrom | Alex Ovechkin |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 8 | 7 |
| 5v5 Ice Time | 96:46 | 66:35 |
| Shot Attempts (For–Against) | 79–88 | 50–80 |
| Shot Attempts % | 47.3% | 38.5% |
| Scoring Chances (For–Against) | 30–43 | 21–35 |
| Scoring Chance % | 41.1% | 37.5% |
| High-Danger Chances (For–Against) | 11–16 | 11–21 |
| High-Danger Chance % | 40.7% | 34.4% |
| Expected Goals (For–Against) | 3.11–4.26 | 1.99–5.02 |
| Expected Goals % | 42.2% | 28.4% |
| Expected Goals Against/60 | 2.64 | 4.52 |
| Actual Goals (For–Against) | 1–4 | 6–2 |
| Offensive/Defensive Zone Starts | 20–11 | 15–0 |
Yet, while Ovechkin’s analytics are not great, there are reasons to be optimistic beyond the context of him finding his game legs after injury. While the Capitals are being shelled in Ovechkin’s five-on-five minutes, they’ve outscored opponents 6-2, partly fueled by converting 30 percent of their shots with him on the ice. That sort of finishing rate is highly unlikely to last over an entire season, but it does suggest that Ovechkin’s offensive instincts and hockey sense remain elite.
Ovechkin has also started the previous two seasons slowly, and by year’s end he finished with 44 and 32 goals, respectively. His shot appears to be just as hard and lethal as before. He has a penchant for proving doubters wrong — not some of the time — but every time, and I have learned that lesson.
Then two of Ovechkin’s first seven games this season have come in the back end of back-to-backs against the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Montreal Canadiens.
Ovechkin has gladly accepted a more limited role — he’s averaging a career-low 13:56 of ice time, which is over three minutes fewer per game than his last three seasons — and Spencer Carbery, the Capitals’ very statistically aware head coach, appeared happy with his play and his usage after the team’s 5-4 win over the Montreal Canadiens despite the Capitals getting out-attempted 11-4, out-chanced 5-0, and out-high-danger-chanced 2-0 in his five-on-five minutes.
“What did he play tonight? 13? I think he’s in a spot where I don’t have to worry,” Carbery said when asked how he approaches load management with Ovechkin, especially in back-to-backs, by RMNB’s Katie Adler. “Like, if he was playing 18, 19 minutes, (I) might have to worry. But right around this 13, 14, 15 (minutes), depending on how special teams are, (I’m) comfortable with that. And I thought he looked good tonight.”
Ovechkin’s line was on the ice late in the third period when Justin Holl sent a shot past Jakub Dobes, giving the Capitals a 4-3 lead. At first, Ovechkin appeared to deflect the puck, but slow-motion replays showed he did not.
“The undercover play that he makes on that goal… is to play in the neutral zone right by our bench,” Carbery said. “A lot of guys would grab that puck and just rip it in, which nothing wrong with that, but he realized he’s got a little bit more time. So he makes the pass. I think it was to Miro. I’ll have to watch it again. But I just remember that’s a really good play to keep the puck alive. Then we go in and are able to retrieve the forechecked puck. So, not answering your question, but I liked what he did tonight. And I think his minutes and him playing in the back-to-back, he was fine with it.”
While Carbery partially evaded Katie’s question, there’s no hiding from the tough internal questions the Capitals are facing and going to have to answer to themselves soon. Ovechkin is three games away from a $4.75 million performance bonus if he appears in 10 games this season. One expects Ovechkin to receive that and the team to bet on their captain.
But two weeks into the season, concerns remain: Is Ovechkin playable right now? Will Ovechkin’s five-on-five analytics even out? Does Ovechkin need more aggressive load management to make it through the year?
Because if this team wants to play for a Stanley Cup, this is something that has to be further managed and reevaluated when you see numbers like this.
