John Carlson isn’t technically an unrestricted free agent yet, but we may already know where he’ll be ending up once he becomes one on July 1.
According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the 36-year-old defender appears destined for sunny weather down south in Florida, with the Tampa Bay Lightning major favorites to ink him to his next deal. The Lightning recently sent offensive defenseman Darren Raddysh to the Toronto Maple Leafs in a sign-and-trade deal and will seemingly look to replace his output with the more proven and experienced Carlson.
“I mean, the Raddysh one, when Treliving was the GM (of the Maple Leafs), I heard they were going to go after him hard,” Friedman said on the latest episode of the 32 Thoughts podcast. “And obviously, that philosophy didn’t change under Chayka. They went out, and they got him. I don’t think Tampa was going to do what Toronto was willing to do.
“As a matter of fact, most people seem to think they would be surprised if John Carlson doesn’t end up in Tampa. He’s likely to go to the Lightning on a short-term deal for big dollars. But it would be considerably less in terms of overall dollars. Like his AAV might end up even higher, potentially than Raddysh’s, just obviously for the shorter term.”
Raddysh signed an eight-year, $68 million contract with his hometown team, a deal that will cost the Maple Leafs $8.5 million against the salary cap through the 2033-34 campaign. Previous reporting from The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun indicated that Carlson could be seeking a two-year, $20 million contract ($10 million AAV) as a baseline during his free-agency negotiations.
According to PuckPedia, the Lightning do currently have the cap space, $13.2 million, to fit a contract like that on their roster. However, they have a several free agents they might want to retain, including Corey Perry, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Mitchell Chaffee, and Declan Carlile.
Tampa Bay has only two right-handed defenders, Erik Cernak and Maxwell Crozier, signed for next season. If Carlson does join the Lightning, he could form a dominant top pairing with fellow veteran star defenseman Victor Hedman.
Carlson is coming off an eight-year, $64 million contract that he signed with the Washington Capitals in the summer of 2018, just after winning the Stanley Cup. In 71 games split between the Capitals and Anaheim Ducks this past year, Carlson recorded 60 points (14g, 46a). Among all scheduled free agents, he is the second-highest scoring defenseman and fifth-highest scoring player overall. He skated 23:10 of ice time per game, which ranked 29th in the NHL.
Other potential suitors for Carlson that have been mentioned include the Philadelphia Flyers and Chicago Blackhawks. Carlson is thought to prefer a return to the East Coast, where he and his family have settled. Hockey insider Frank Seravalli recently stated his belief that Chicago may not be “east enough” for Carlson’s desires.
