Losing a must-win matchup: numbers for the morning after

The Washington Capitals haven’t been able to string wins together all season, and that isn’t changing in this final stretch run. The Caps made the short trip up to Philadelphia in what was most likely a must-win game to keep their playoff hopes alive and fell 4-1 in regulation.

The fat lady is making her way on stage, folks.

• The Capitals actually played pretty well at five-on-five, ending up ahead of the Flyers by 21 shot attempts and 7 high-danger chances. They were creating some great looks, but the same problems from the rest of the season kicked in, and they just couldn’t put those chances in the back of the net. It’s almost like they’ve needed some upgrades at forward for multiple years now.
• Ryan Leonard scored the team’s lone goal, his 13th of the season. He is now riding a four-game point streak (3g, 1a), which matches his career-long.
• The loss featured Timothy Liljegren making his Capitals debut. Liljegren skated 14:48 of ice time, fired one shot on net in five individual shot attempts, took a minor penalty, and blocked four shots. With him on the ice at five-on-five, the Caps posted positive differentials in shot attempts (+8), scoring chances (+3), and high-danger chances (+4).

• Not a great night for Logan Thompson, who allowed three goals on just 21 shots faced. According to MoneyPuck, he allowed 0.35 more goals than expected. In the other net, Samuel Ersson saved 2.77 more goals than expected.
• After a pretty great game against Calgary, Hendrix Lapierre skated just 6:55 of ice time. Once David Kampf is ready to play, I’m afraid it’s entirely possible we might have seen the last of Lapierre in a Capitals jersey.
• If you’re wondering what the loss did for the team’s draft lottery odds, the answer is nothing mathematically, but they are definitely better positioned to finish the season behind the Flyers. As of now, the Capitals would pick 13th in the first round, with a 2 percent chance of winning the lottery and moving up 10 spots to third overall. If you want a visual of that, Tankathon does a great job of displaying it, and you can simulate the lottery 167 times until Washington moves up.