Money Puck is a great resource for figuring out the odds of whether a middling team will make the playoffs. For instance, the New York Rangers, losers of 9 of their last 12 games, have seen their chances to qualify for the postseason drop from 93 percent on October 20 to 9 percent.
Meanwhile, the Capitals’ outlook is far rosier. In fact, they’re running through a field of flowers, twirling and spinning around while inspiring music plays overhead.
Through Sunday’s games, Money Puck says the Capitals have a 99.9 percent chance of making the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Playoff chances as of Sunday https://t.co/RbnckCMfDn pic.twitter.com/wOG5leYeWj
— MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) December 15, 2024
But, if you can stomach the jinxiness and let yourself look a little closer, the Capitals have the second-best odds of winning the 2025 Stanley Cup at 11.1 percent. The Edmonton Oilers lead the metric at 11.4 percent.
Part of the reason why the model is so optimistic about the Capitals is because they are on pace to record the most standings points in franchise history with 124. That’s more points than all three of their Presidents’ Trophy-winning seasons in 2009-10 (121), 2015-16 (120), and 2016-17 (118).
So far this season, the Capitals have the highest points percentage at .759. Only two other NHL teams are even above .700: the Minnesota Wild (.710) and the Winnipeg Jets (.703).
Perhaps the best way to look at the Capitals is that they lead the league in goal differential, plus-38, after squeaking into the playoffs in 2024 at a minus-37 — the worst ever for a team in the salary cap era. An improvement of 75 goals.
Times are good right now, so let’s feel all warm and fuzzies.
