You are now entering Loffs Watch. If you lived here, you’d be home by now.
What the dickens. Alex Ovechkin’s goal last night was his 30th and the game-winner, ending Washington’s losing streak and sending them improbably up the standings. It’s 🍌🍌🍌 and it’s 🥜🥜🥜 that you can have a six-game losing streak and remain in the playoff race. The battle for M3 (third place in the Metro) and WC2 (second wild card) is one of the wildest I’ve seen in years.
Those standings, as of my second cup of coffee this morning:
The Caps currently own WC2, but it’s tight. They trail the M3 Islanders by two points, they lead the Penguins and Red Wings by one point, and they lead the Flyers (who have one less game in the clip) by two points.
Philadelphia getting impaled 9-3 by Montreal last night might have done them in for good. They’re in the single digits now. Torts is going to be sour. You will not be able to tell the difference.
The odds, from three respected models:
| Source | % |
|---|---|
| HockeyViz | 47 |
| Moneypuck | 42 |
| The Athletic | 42 |
Could you pick up a d20 right now and roll a 12 or better? It’s like you’re being asked to climb a chest-high wall and you’re training in acrobatics. Do you even have a d20 nearby? If you did, would you know how to identify it? Here:
Tonight there are zero games in the eastern conference, but Thursday is going to be busy.
- Caps at Sabres – 36-point swing
- Flyers at Rangers – 2-point swing
- Wings at Penguins – 4-point swing, surprisingly small as long as it ends in regulation.
- Canadiens at Islanders – 12-point swing
That’s right. I’m using the word swing now. I’m not confident about it. (The numbers are from HockeyViz.)
Before we wrap up for the day, let’s talk about tiebreakers. Regulation wins rule the day if two teams are tied, and the Capitals are kinda okay there. Only Pittsburgh has more (31 to Washington’s 29), so in the increasingly likely chance that the Caps and someone else are battling for WC2 with the same number of points, then the Caps get a ticket to the dance.
Do they still do tickets to dances? I had actual paper tickets to high-school dances in the late 90s. Do they still do that with gen z? I hope they’re not doing QR codes now.
Loffs Watch Theme Song of the Day
That’s Loffs Watch. We are nearing the series finale. There is an uncertain number of episodes remaining, as your humble author scheduled a vacation 🇨🇺 for the end of the regular season way back when the Caps had like a seven-percent chance of making it. Oops.
