This time on Loffs Watch: a very special episode of Loffs Watch. You’ll want to read this one with your family.
The Capitals got smushed by the Penguins on Thursday night, a game billed (by us, but not only by us) as the biggest game of the season. As we’ll see in a moment, that loss and other factors sent Washington’s playoff chances spiraling, but more directly it kicked the Caps out of a wild-card spot for the moment.
The Islanders, fresh off a 4-2 win over the Blue Jackets, hop on up to the second wild-card spot. Eagle-eyed readers will notice the Caps have played one less game, so that’s some consolation. Meanwhile, they are now tied with the Red Wings at 82 points in 75 games, and the Penguins are still alive, albeit one point behind the Caps with one less game left to play.
So, I guess it’s time to talk about tiebreakers. I suppose this was inevitable. Both the Isles and Flyers have 83 points in 76 games, but the Flyers have won three more games in regulation, so they’re ahead. The Caps and Wings both have 82 points in 75 games, but the Caps have won two more games in regulation, so they’re ahead.
I have this sinking feeling that tiebreaker will apply come game 82.
Now for the models.
| Source | % |
|---|---|
| HockeyViz | 40 |
| Moneypuck | 36 |
| The Athletic | – |
Woof. That’s a drop of about 20 percentage points and a return to where the Caps were about two weeks ago, when we all got together for our first-ever Loffs Watch. Remember the good times? That was before the Caps lost four straight, getting outscored 18 to 6. The Caps have the second worst PDO – the sum of five-on-five shooting percentage and save percentage to measure volatile finishing rates – over those last four games. The only team doing worse: the Flyers, somehow still holding onto third as their coach descends into madness like Ren.
The good news is that the Caps could vault up more than 15 points with a regulation win over the Carolina Hurricanes. With four (and a half if you count Pittsburgh) teams positioning for two playoff spots in the east, every game is going to have a huge impact like this until someone pulls ahead.
Loffs Watch Theme Song for the Day
‘Til we meet again, It’s been Loffs Watch.
