You’ve done it again. You’ve arrived at Loffs Watch, America’s favorite source for Washington Capitals Playoff Chances News and Updates NHL Scores Caps Alex Ovechkin Squirrels. (Sorry: SEO dump.) We have an excellent episode for you today.
At 7 PM tonight the Capitals will host the Pittsburgh Penguins for their final date of the season. It will have a profound impact on the standings, which right now look like this:
So the Caps are one point (but with two extra games left) behind the Flyers for third in the Metro. They’re tied in points but with one extra game left compared to the Red Wings. The Islanders and Penguins place lower and have one less (or fewer, if you’re the pedant who DMs me every time I use vernacular when writing for a general audience) game left. I hope you enjoy those standings, because they’re about to change.
But first: a perfunctory check with the predictive models, where it’s not really an update.
| Source | % |
|---|---|
| HockeyViz | 58 |
| Moneypuck | 55 |
| The Athletic | 49 |
That is virtually no change from the day before. I could have skipped this part, but I need routines in my life to pretend I’m not spiraling into chaos.
Okay, Caps-Pens. According to Moneypuck, the Caps playoff chances would be 69 percent after a win or 39 percent after a tie – a swing of about 15 points in either direction. According to HockeyViz, it’s about the same – 73 percent after a win or 48 percent after a tie. That makes tonight the biggest game of the season so far – and also maybe the most important Capitals-Penguins game in a couple years? Maybe the last important game between these two teams of this era? That’s weird to think about.
Elsewhere, the Flyers will visit the vaunted Sabres, and the Wings will host the Rangers. Those games could together swing the Caps’ chances an additional ten points.
I’m jammed up on “swing.” If the Caps could do 15 percentage points better or 15 percentage point worse depending on the outcome of a game, is that a 30-point swing? I don’t think so, or at least I don’t feel comfortable saying that, but sincerely I don’t know for sure. Inform me in the commies.
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