It’s Sunday morning and you need your fix of Loffs Watch. Lucky for you: here comes Loffs Watch. It’s a series where we monitor the Washington Capitals’ quest to make the playoffs.
It was a busy Saturday for the NHL, with 22 teams suiting up, and from our perspective the results were varied. A few important ones:
- NYI beat WPG 6-3, hurting the Caps a little
- PHI best BOS 3-2, hurting the Caps a little
- NSH beat DET 1-0, helping the Caps a little
- OTT beat NJD 5-2, helping the Caps a little
And as a result, here are the standings:
So Philadelphia remains four points and two games ahead in the Metropolitan race. I like to think of that kind of situation like this: if the Capitals played perfectly in those two extra games, only then would it be a tie. Meanwhile, the Caps are technically ahead of the Red Wings by points percentage, which ultimately is a better way to think about these things.
Let’s ask the models how they’re doing.
| Source | % |
|---|---|
| HockeyViz | 53 |
| Moneypuck | 44 |
| The Athletic | – |
(No update from The Athletic today.)
It’s a mixed bag. By HockeyViz’s reckoning, the Caps ticked up ever-so-slightly, but by Moneypuck’s they actually dropped a few points. It’s hard for your humble author to square those changes. In any case, today’s results will be less ambiguous.
If the Capitals beat the Jets in regulation or overtime, they’ll improve their chances by about 10 percentage points. If they lose in regulation, they’ll lose about ten points. (An overtime loss would not change their fates one much in either direction.) They’re all huge games from here on out, but this one is special – a tremendously tough opponent in a match that will set the stage for Tuesday’s Wings-Caps collision. The Caps need to not lose in regulation.
As a bonus, Columbus would be eliminated if the Caps win.
Games today between FLA-PHI, PIT-COL, and NJD-NYI will all impact the race as well. That total swing in both direction should be something like 32 points. So by bedtime we could see the Caps in the driver’s seat – or affirmed in underdog status. Strap in.
Loffs Watch Theme Song of the Day
This has been Loffs Watch.
