Welcome to Loffs Watch, the place where we monitor the Capitals’ playoff chances. It’s a little number that changes everyday, and that’s exciting.
I don’t know if Friday night’s shootout win over the Hurricanes was the best game of the year, but it was certainly the most fun. And boy was it important. According to HockeyViz (non-paywalled link by the way), a regulation loss would have lowered the team’s playoff chances by nine points, and a regulation win would have improved them by ten points – a massive spread, and the type we’ll see more of as the schedule dwindles. Every game matters.
We’ll check in on chances in a moment, but let’s start with the standings.
The Caps still trail the Red Wings by point total, but they actually have a tiny lead in points percentage (.558 to .557). They’re also within striking distance of the Philadelphia Flyers for third in the Metropolitan Division. The Flyers host the Bruins at 1 PM today.
Let’s check in with the models.
| Source | % |
|---|---|
| HockeyViz | 52 |
| Moneypuck | 49 |
| The Athletic | 42 |
That’s an increase of about 10 points across the board, bringing the Capitals to just about coin-flip territory. Most of that improvement comes from the big win, but Pittsburgh’s loss to Dallas nudged them upwards as well.
We could see those numbers move a little today. A regulation win by Boston over Philadelphia would further the help the Caps, whereas a win of any kind by Philadelphia would cost them a percentage point or three. The next real jump in either direction will come on Sunday, Aileen’s birthday, as the Caps welcome the Jets to town. And then they need to start drawing red letters next to some days on the calendar, but we will talk about those later.
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Tune in tomorrow for more Loffs Watch.
