Hours after Washington Capitals forward Evgeny Kuznetsov was cleared to return to practice by the NHL/NHLA Player Assistance Program, the team placed him on waivers. On Sunday Kuznetsov cleared those waivers, and on Tuesday he will practice with the team’s AHL affiliate, the Hershey Bears.
Kuznetsov is in new and unexplored territory. Although it’s clear he and the Capitals are heading in different directions, the precise way they’ll separate is still unclear. Here are the most likely scenarios.
Summer buyout
In the back half of June, NHL teams can buy out the remainder of players’ contracts. In the case of Kuznetsov, who has a salary-cap hit of $7.8 million through 2024-25, a buyout would mean the Capitals would still pay $3.8 million towards the cap in 2024-25 plus a flat $2 million in 2025-26. Seen from the other side, the Capitals would save $4 million next season if they bought out Kuznetsov. That savings could be seen as wiping out nearly all of the salary cap increase the league expects for next season, but it would also be a swift and clean end to a strained relationship.
We’ll discuss the other scenarios in a moment, but assuming the team is unable to trade Kuznetsov in the next week and the player is not willing to make a sudden, dramatic change to his life and family, a buyout should be considered the most likely outcome right now.
Contract termination
There are two ways in which Kuznetsov’s current contract could be terminated. One that will probably not happen: a team-initiated termination for material breach. The most recent example of this was Adam Ruzicka, whose contract was terminated by Arizona after he published a video of himself with a white powder that appeared to be cocaine. And last fall, Corey Perry’s contract was terminated by Chicago after an unspecified behavioral incident. In 2020, Washington’s own Brendan Leipsic’s contract was terminated following the leaking of private messages in which Leipsic disparaged teammates and their families and discussed drug use.
Although Evgeny Kuznetsov was suspended by the NHL for cocaine use in 2019, the nature of his time in the player-assistance program has not been disclosed and should not be assumed. In any case, pursuing termination for behavioral reasons would be unpleasant – extraordinarily so in the wake of that player’s time in a recovery program. It would require proving (privately) that they violated section 2.c of the Standard Player Contract, which states that a player must agree “to conduct himself on and off the rink according to the highest standards of honesty, morality, fair play and sportsmanship, and to refrain from conduct detrimental to the best interest of the Club, the League or professional hockey generally.” Again, it’s not known why Kuznetsov was in the recovery program, and it would be unprecedented for a team to pursue a material-breach case against a player recently in the program for the very reason they were in the program. It would almost certainly invite a grievance from the player’s association.
But there’s a less controversial and less unlikely path to termination, and it could come suddenly. Section 2.a of the SPC requires a player “to report to his Club’s Training Camp at the time and place fixed by the Club, in good physical condition.” If Evgeny Kuznetsov at any time were to refuse to play — by merely not reporting to his team or by fully returning to the KHL, where SKA Saint Petersburg holds his rights, that would trigger the process. The Capitals would have a clear path to at least suspend Kuznetsov and more likely to pursue a termination. In some cases, this resolution can be mutual, and even amicable. That’s just what happened last month when Nick Bonino declined to report to the New York Rangers’ AHL team and instead requested contract termination.
Russia is an option. Kuznetsov had used the threat of returning to the KHL, where it was reported he could have earned $10 million a year, as leverage in his 2017 contract negotiations. And more than a decade ago, Kuznetsov spoke about his desire to one day return to play in Russia. But walking out on his NHL contract would mean that he would forfeit all his owed NHL pay, nearly $8 million dollars.
The Bears have announced that Kuznetsov will indeed join them this week, but any time after that he could choose to leave and play in Russia instead. In any situation where Kuznetsov is willing to uproot his family and lose millions of dollars, termination would be the result, but that would be a dramatic choice.
Trade
Brian MacLellan said Kuznetsov’s camp is “looking for a change of scenery,” and the simplest and most desired way to accomplish that is through a trade to another NHL team. The trade deadline (for playoff eligibility) is Friday, March 8. The Capitals would likely have to retain their maximum 50 percent of Kuznetsov’s $7.8 million cap hit, and given the player’s poor on-ice performance (6 goals and 11 assists in 43 games) they would also likely have to trade valuable assets to offset his shortcomings.
Last summer, the Capitals confirmed reports that Kuznetsov had requested trades in the past. The Capitals reportedly had a deal in the works that would have swapped Kuznetsov for Matt Duchene, then of the Nashville Predators, but that deal fell apart, and the Predators bought out Duchene weeks later. That the team chose to buy out the player instead of trading for Kuznetsov may suggest his current market value. “If he was tradeable,” Elliotte Friedman said on Monday’s 32 Thoughts podcast, “it would have already happened.”
The graph below from HockeyViz shows Kuznetsov’s career trajectory from an elite player in 2015-16 and again in 2020-21 down to a current level that is below replacement-quality play.
Kuznetsov’s contract places him in the top 70 among active players, but his on-ice play puts him at the league’s very bottom. As such, it would be challenging to find a trade partner for Kuznetsov without moving assets and players the Capitals would find critical to their rebuild process. It’s for those reasons that the Capitals have been unable to secure a trade in the past, and it’s why they’ll be unlikely to make a trade this week. They could try again in the summer, but they’ll still face headwinds.
The AHL, long-term
On Tuesday, Kuznetsov will report to the AHL-leading Hershey Bears for practice. If he plays games, Kuznetsov could become the highest-paid player ever to suit up at the AHL level. Bears head coach Todd Nelson seems excited by that possibility. “Anytime if we’re able to get a player like Kuzy, exceptional talent, there’s a reason he’s played in the National Hockey League for 11 years,” Nelson said on Sunday.
How long Kuznetsov would stay is another matter. If Kuznetsov clears waivers again in the fall, his stint could hypothetically last the length of his contract, through the end of the 2024-25 season. But the Capitals could recall him at any time, especially if Kuznetsov plays well, which would return us to the status quo. But also, at any point in his time in Hershey, Kuznetsov could choose to return to Russia, which would create the cause for termination and foregoing of salary discussed above.
Limbo at the NHL level
We know both the team and the player have tried unsuccessfully to end their stalemate for years, but it’s still in the realm of possibility that Kuznetsov remains a rostered Caps player until his contract ends.
Kuznetsov would have to play and play well at the AHL level to be recalled to the big club. With Washington again he’d see regular play in a variable role (Kuznetsov played fourth-line assignments earlier this season), a situation neither the team nor the player seem to want, but which may be necessary as a compromise and to audition the player for trades.
Although this situation is not wished for by either party, it is also the path with the least built-in friction, and it contains hope for Kuznetsov’s continued improvement on and off the ice.
All of these scenarios depend on Kuznetsov getting cleared by the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program to return to full participation. These timelines are not fixed. Another member of the program, Colorado’s Valeri Nichushkin, was cleared to practice with his team on February 26 but has not been cleared to play in games nearly ten days later. Recovery from any kind of personal health issue is rarely a straight line, and Kuznetsov’s status may remain uncertain for some time, precluding any of the developments above from happening for awhile.
In any case, from the front office to the coach to the players, the Capitals’ message has been consistent: the well-being of Evgeny Kuznetsov is paramount. “I think we’re open to anything that gives him an opportunity to continue his career the way he wants to continue it,” Brian MacLellan said after Kuznetsov was put on waivers on Saturday.
While Kuznetsov was in the player-assistance program, head coach Spencer Carbery similarly put Kuznetsov’s needs first. “For us, as an organization, staff, players,” Carbery said, “it’s just supporting him and his family as he gets the help that he needs.”
And finally, Kuznetsov’s teammate, Alex Ovechkin, expressed everyone’s hopes. Through translation, the captain said, “let God grant that everything goes well for him.“
