The best part of the Washington Capitals over the last few weeks has been the twin returns of Max Pacioretty and TJ Oshie. Culminating in Oshie’s soaring hat-trick performance over the Blues on Thursday, the line of Pacioretty, Strome, and Oshie has been — by far — Washington’s best by every metric. They’ve outscored opponents three to one and soundly controlled play when measured by shot attempts and expected goals.
But meanwhile, left out in the cold, is Alex Ovechkin, goalless in his last five games. Without Strome as his pivot, Ovechkin spends his shifts in the defensive zone getting shelled. Spencer Carbery could do better for everyone involved.
But first, I have to sing the praises of Pacioretty-Strome-Oshie before I ask for its dissolution. Here’s the share of events that belong to Washington in the 43 minutes they’ve been on the ice together. Keep in mind that 50 percent means even, and 60 percent is really good.
| Pacioretty-Strome-Oshie | % |
|---|---|
| Shot attempts | 58.9 |
| Expected goals | 68.4 |
| Goals | 75.0 |
Those are elite numbers. Not Hyman-McDavid-RNH level, but still very strong. I doubt that the goals would stay that positive over a longer sample, but it’s safe to say the line has chemistry. You can see it in this heatmap from HockeyViz, which suggests the offense (red blobs) are often coming from Pacioretty’s side of the ice.
That offense is extra appreciated on a Capitals team that desperately lacks it. As a whole they rank 27th in expected-goal rate and 29th in actual-goal rate, so boosting offense should be Spencer Carbery’s number-one priority. But among Washington’s top six, The Pacioretty-Strome-Oshie line is a lonely island.
The chart below shows the goal-difference rate (i.e. Caps goals minus opponents goals per hour) of select player combinations in expected (up and down) and actual (left and right) terms.
To no one’s surprise, Pacioretty-Strome-Oshie owns the top-right corner, but otherwise things are dire. The once and future best scorer on the planet, Alex Ovechkin, has been atrocious when paired with Evgeny Kuznetsov, as he mostly has been when healthy in the new year.
| Ovechkin-Kuznetsov | % |
|---|---|
| Shot attempts | 41.8 |
| Expected goals | 33.0 |
| Goals | 28.6 |
As a reminder, 50 percent means even. Less than 40 percent should not be considered competitive pro hockey. And getting doubled-up (33.0 percent) in expected goals is simply unplayable. Ovechkin and Kuznetsov have been outscored 10 to 4, and that’s not on the goalies, who have saved a respectable .906 during their shifts. Opponents are simply spending too much time in Washington’s zone and getting dangerous chances while there. Here’s another heatmap from HockeyViz, except this time it’s showing opponent offense against the Caps when Ovechkin and Kuznetsov are on the ice.
It’s a travesty.
This is not just about juicing Alex Ovechkin’s scoring on his quest to catch Wayne Gretzky. Playing Ovechkin with Kuznetsov hurts the Capitals in the standings on an ongoing basis. And while Ovechkin is not a good defensive player, it’s plain to see that the real problem on the pairing is Kuznetsov, who currently ranks dead last in Goals Above Replacement among NHL forwards with 600 minutes played.
You might think Kuznetsov is a lost cause, and you might be right, but there could still be a way out of it. Kuznetsov has actually played well with one particular player, TJ Oshie, the Kuzy Whisperer.
| Oshie and Kuznetsov | SA% | xGF% | GF% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Together | 50.5 | 53.9 | 27.3 |
| Kuznetsov w/o Oshie | 39.7 | 32.5 | 33.3 |
| Oshie w/o Kuznetsov | 48.0 | 46.5 | 41.7 |
Kuznetsov improves ten percentage points in shot attempts and more than twenty (!!!) in expected goals when he gets a shift with Oshie (a decently sized 154-minute sample). That’s a jump from very bad to “oh heck yeah, I’ll take that, please just finish your chances.”
(The last row, Oshie without Kuznetsov, I don’t put much weight in. Oshie’s been above 58 percent in shot attempts since the new year.)
Oshie has proven chemistry with Kuznetsov. Actually, Oshie has proven chemistry with pretty much everyone, except maybe Oveckin and Strome, who should be together anyway. As a line, Ovechkin-Strome-Wilson have controlled 58.0 percent of attempts and 59.0 of expected goals in their 214 minutes together. Their finishing has still been terribly unlucky (9 for opponents, 8 for Washington) due to an absurdly low 5.8 shooting percentage. I don’t think that can last.
So here’s what I think Carbery should do:
Get Ovechkin back in the attacking zone so we can enjoy his shot again. Get Oshie to babysit Kuznetsov and see if that still works with Pacioretty. (Bonus: get the McMichael line more ice time and some of the Dowd’s line defensive-zone starts, but that’s a topic for another day.)
It’s a test of Carbery’s mettle if he’d actually do this. The Caps are 5-4-0 in the new year, but they’ve done so while being out-possessed 55:45 and outscored 21 to 16 during five-on-five. They’ve got one line that is scoring but another that is irreparably broken. They’ve been burned so bad by low shooting percentages for so long that they’re probably shy to make adjustments, but this stretch of the schedule is both difficult and important, and it’ll require the Caps at their best to stay competitive.
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