The future of Matvei Michkov has been a mysterious topic in the run-up to the 2023 NHL Draft. The 18-year-old Russian winger is broadly considered one of the best players available this summer. “His junior performance is so far to the right of the bell curve he falls off the curve,” an anonymous NHL executive told The Athletic’s Corey Pronman. Michkov is lauded for offensive creativity, recording nine goals and eleven assists in 27 games with the KHL’s HC Sochi this season and receiving MVP honors in the 2021 under-18 World Championship.
But Michkov is under contract with SKA St. Petersburg for the next three seasons, and he’s been aloof in dealings with scouts from certain teams leading up to the draft. Those factors — plus the global chill on Russian players because of the country’s invasion of Ukraine — have caused Michkov’s stock to drop. Despite those circumstances, Washington has been consistently linked with the player, with pretty much everyone assuming the Capitals would select him if he is still available eighth overall.
It is hard to estimate how likely it would be that the Caps get Michkov, but I’m going to give it a try.
The draft is a series of contingencies, so the chance of Washington getting Michkov at eighth is a contingency of a contingency of a contingency and so on. I figure the best way I have of putting a number on it is by estimating the probability that each team above Washington in the draft selects Michkov, and calculating the successive chances he remains available. For example if the first team is 90-percent likely NOT to pick Michkov and the second team is 50-percent likely not to pick him, and 0.9 times 0.5 is 0.45, then there’s a 45-percent chance he’d still be available to the third team.
I’ve made up these numbers based on what I’ve read, and my numbers are extravagantly estimated, but I’ll try to justify them. At the very least, you can decide where I went wrong and substitute your own probabilities in the comments.
Pick no. 1: Chicago Blackhawks
This year will be known as the Connor Bedard draft forever. It’s extremely hard to imagine a situation in which Chicago goes another direction, barring some kind of disaster. If 0.5 percent still feels high, please consider that there’s a better chance that Glenn Youngkin becomes the next president.
Chances Michkov is available: 100 percent
Chances Chicago selects Michkov: 0.5 percent
Pick no. 2: Anaheim Ducks
Adam Fantilli is not quite at the consensus level of Bedard at number-one overall, but he’s not far behind. The 15-percent chance that they select Michkov is basically the “what if Pat Verbeek zags on ’em?” scenario. It’s not likely, but it could happen.
Chances Michkov is available: 99 percent
Chances Anaheim selects Michkov: 15 percent
Pick no. 3: Columbus Blue Jackets
Aaron Portzline of the Athletic supposes it’s more likely that the Jackets trade down to let another team select Michkov than it is they’d select him themselves. Most mock drafts expect Columbus to select either Leo Carlsson or Will Smith, both centers.
Chances Michkov is available: 85 percent
Chances Columbus selects Michkov: 5 percent
Pick no. 4: San Jose Sharks
Mike Grier was named GM of the Sharks right before the 2022 draft occurred, so this will be his first time truly at the helm. The safe pick is whatever center is left over among the top four, but Grier is an unknown quantity and owner Hasso Plattner has an affinity for Russians, so I don’t count this one out.
Chances Michkov is available: 80 percent
Chances San Jose selects Michkov: 20 percent
Pick no. 5: Montreal Canadiens
I had imagined the Habs as a possible home for Michkov, but Arpon Basu doesn’t think it will happen, citing Michkov’s size and his “one-dimensional nature” more than his KHL contract situation or Russia’s war. That said, a lot of draft rankings had slotted Michkov around fifth, so it’s at this point where we see Michkov’s circumstances conflict with his estimated value.
Chances Michkov is available: 64 percent
Chances Montreal selects Michkov: 10 percent
Pick no. 6: Arizona Coyotes
The Coyotes have two first-round picks, so they could be considered a wild card in the draft. (If they should be considered team at all, rather than a slush fund for 31 other teams and an obvious failure that Gary Bettman will never admit.) On the ice, the organization has a major defensive deficit: no blue-liners are under contract after next season, so I’d expect them to focus on that position in the draft. Will the player they select ever even see the American southwest?
Chances Michkov is available: 58 percent
Chances Arizona selects Michkov: 15 percent
Pick no. 7: Philadelphia Flyers
Now headed by Danny Briere, the Flyers are suddenly and finally sincere about a rebuild. Michkov could be a major piece of that plan. Corey Pronman thinks Philadelphia would not pass on Ryan Leonard, but it’s around this spot the popular draft rankings and mock drafts start to diverge. In local media availability, Briere signaled that the team would do real due diligence on the Michkov, so I think the chance is real.
Chances Michkov is available: 49 percent
Chances Philadelphia selects Michkov: 40 percent
In the end, in my imagination (which I suspect is too optimistic for Washington), there’s a 30-percent chance that Michkov would be available to the Capitals as the eighth overall pick. If that’s the case, he will almost certainly get selected by Washington. Then the team will try to navigate the player’s contract, his personal wishes, and his country’s illegal invasion of their neighbor.
But if Michkov isn’t going to be available at number eight, Washington has to make some big decisions.
- If they must have him but are worried he won’t be available, then they should try to trade up to get him. There have been some rumors that this is the case.
- If they can’t get him and want to help the team right now, then they may consider packaging the pick into a trade offer for a top-six forward. If they do this, it’s a sign they’re sincere about the Promise Strategy.
- If they can’t get him and want to plan for a rebuild several years out, then they should select another player or trade down for more value that wouldn’t be realized for a few years.
I have this fantasy where Michkov is available, and Capitals get him, and he wants to play for them, and they determine he is ready to play in the NHL as early as next season, and they get him out of his KHL contract, and they get him to the US without a problem. Michkov would then play on the top line with Alex Ovechkin in Ovi’s journey to break Gretzky’s goal record, and the Capitals get a sudden rejuvenation that helps put them back into playoff contention. It would be in line with the Promise Strategy, but it would also help the team’s long-term future. It would also make this upcoming season less dreary, which is ideal if you have a job writing about it.
That’s probably not going to happen, but wouldn’t it be nice?
Headline photo: @matvey_michkov39/Instagram
