The Washington Capitals parted company with Dmitry Orlov and Garnet Hathaway on Thursday night, signaling that the team will be “retooling“, which is just another word for selling at the trade deadline.
More trades are coming before the deadline hits at 3 PM on Friday March 3, and we have figured out who is most and least likely to go. Gird your loins and find out.
A tier
- Nick Jensen. This 32-year-old defender drives possession modestly and has been particularly good at making plays this season, recording a career-high in primary assists (11). There’s always a market for a reliable right-shooting defender, so I wonder if Jensen could be worth a first-round pick. He should be very attractive to any team wanting top-four defensive help.
- Erik Gustafsson. His offense explosion diminished after John Carlson left the lineup, but the breakout season from this 30-year-old leftie defender surely garnered some attention. Dom Luszczyszyn rated him as one of the most valuable players relative to his salary, which is near the league minimum, so pretty much every contender could fit him under the cap.
B tier
- Trevor van Riemsdyk. TvR has quietly become the team’s most dependable defensive defender, fielding the lowest rate of opponent high-danger chances among Washington’s blue line. He’s on the wrong side of 30 (31, the same side of 30 as me, so who am I to judge) and with a contract under $1 million, van Riemsdyk would be yet another defensive depth option in a deadline marketplace that is otherwise lacking them.
C tier
- Lars Eller. This one is a bit tougher. It’s undeniable that Eller is on the downswing. He has neither driven play nor finished well this season; his five-on-five point rate is nearly half of what it was last season. Eller also earns $3.5 million against the cap. But there’s always some team looking for a veteran forward to shore up their depth and maybe lower the strain on younger players. In any case, Washington would almost certainly have to retain salary in a deal.
- Anthony Mantha. Mantha is not an expiring free agent, which is the reason why he’s not higher on this list. He’s also on injured reserve and won’t get off it until three days before the deadline at the earliest. If Washington were to hold onto him, he’d likely enjoy a new coach and new system next season. So those are the factors working against a trade; here is the factor in favor of one: he’s good as hell. Mantha is a strong driver of play, and his drop in production can be explained 100-percent by his drop in opportunity in Washington. He scores 0.69 goals per hour during five-on-five play, the exact same as he had in Detroit before the 2021 trade – except here he gets 3.8 fewer minutes per game (all situations). I think teams know he’s struggled in Washington, but I think they also know he’d flourish elsewhere.
D tier
- Conor Sheary. I may be selling Sheary short here. (Jeez, I walked right into that one.) The 30-year-old forward has been Ovechkin’s most common linemate this season (424 shared minutes), and I wonder if that might urge the team to keep him for Ovechkin’s chase. In HockeyViz’s “setting” stat (sort of like playmaking skill for linemates), Sheary has been strong, and I suspect his peculiarity (read: size) might discourage narrow-minded contenders from selecting him. That said, I could also see him doing well with clubs like Minnesota and Colorado.
- Marcus Johansson. My nephew, 32, has low-key been one of Washington’s strongest players this season. Only Nic Dowd has a higher goals-above-replacement among forwards. Johansson has driven play reliably and is well-known here for strong transition skills, especially at the opposing team’s blue line. I just don’t know if that reputation extends outside our community.
- Nicolas Aube-Kubel. NAK, 26, has been a good defensive forward for Washington, but I suspect his status as a waiver wire pick-up who hasn’t been in the lineup every night will work against him.
Z tier
- Alex Ovechkin. Ovechkin, 37, leads the Capitals in goals and is signed through 2025-26. I would be surprised if Brian MacLellan moves him before the deadline.
Headline photo: Alan Dobbins/RMNB
