The Washington Capitals have scored 41 goals in 2023 so far. That ranks them 29th in the league by goal total and 28th by goal rate. In nine of the team’s sixteen games since the new year, they’ve scored two or fewer goals. Of those nine games, they won two.

In short, offense is killing the Washington Capitals. Dudes need goals.

Here’s a helpful way of seeing the team’s goal rate over the whole season. This is all situations, not just five-on-five play. Just for context, I’ve annotated big lineup changes.

Again: The line above is just goal rate, not taking defense into account. Also, the injury points are included just for your consideration; I’m not necessarily suggesting any causation. (Personally, right now, I suspect players playing through injuries are more impactful than players lost to injury.) I just want to illustrate that goals are way down, which you probably already knew.

Looking at the process below the results, it almost feels like the Caps are doing the right thing. Their rate of high-danger chances during five-on-five play has never been higher, and their five-on-five scoring-chance rate isn’t far off its season peak. Since January 1, they rank in the league’s middle-ten in both stats.

But when it comes to turning those chances into real goals, the wheels have come off. The chart below shows how often expected goals become actual goals. This is during five-on-five play only:

Lately, the Caps have gotten a 70-percent return on their expected-goal investment. You can see this reflected in the team’s shooting percentage as well; they’ve been bottom ten since the new year. On the power play, it’s even worse:

The Caps have to generate nearly two expected goals for every actual goal they receive. Now, because Natural Stat Trick’s expected goals model depends on public information without passing data, xG almost certainly underrating Washington’s power play. It can’t account for the cross-crease pass that makes the Ovi Spot so dangerous. But either way, the team is not getting rewarded for their efforts. And the real problem is how little effort there is.

One hundred is a helpful number for understanding power plays. In recent seasons, that’s been just about the league median for shot-attempt rates. The Capitals were around there for a while, but they’ve dropped hard since the new year, ranking them 29th place. This is not a hard puzzle to solve.

The loss of John Carlson on December 23 has wrecked Washington’s power play. It’s unfortunate for a major part of the team to be so heavily dependent on a single player, and it is maybe a suggestion that changes are warranted to mitigate that risk. The team (read: Blaine Forsythe) either needs Carlson healthy or a viable plan B — and fast.

In the meantime, Washington should start to score more no matter what. Some amount of their current goal depression is just bad luck. But their overall offense have been poor all season, and their power play is a full-on disaster. Those problems need real solutions.

Headline photo: Elizabeth Kong/RMNB