All of a sudden, the Washington Capitals have won their last four games and are 7-2-1 in their last ten. Our game recaps of late have been full of words like “fun” and “good” and “nice.” That’s new.

The Caps stonks are soaring. I intend to find out how they’re doing it.

We should begin with those brief but impactful special teams.

After a miserable slump in mid-November, the Capitals have scored 11 power-play goals in their last 12 games. They’re still ranked 19th overall by conversion rate, but they’re basically top ten over the last few weeks. The team ranks second in attempt rate lately, so I think the success is earned.

More consistent is Washington’s top-ten penalty kill, which has only been beaten three times in the last ten games. The unit has had good shot suppression and great goaltending lately, and that’s been saving grace when everything else wasn’t so sunny.

Putting special teams together, the Caps are practically getting spotted a goal every other night, which is one major driver of their recent success – but not the only.

Now to even strength, starting with the “PDO” stats.

Not a driver of recent success is finishing percentages during five-on-five play. After a hot start, Washington hasn’t been getting much puck luck on attack. To be honest, I think they’re due for some progression to the mean: more goals should be coming.

At the other end, Washington’s goaltending has been pretty good all season, with some haughty numbers posted in the back half of November handing them wins when they maybe didn’t deserve it. Overall, the goaltending has been wonderful, so I don’t fret about what’s happening in New Jersey’s and Toronto’s nets these days.

Now onto possession stats, split by offense and defense.

After a bit of an offensive bloom in mid-November, the Caps have settled in around league average when it comes to shot volume. Nothing remarkable here. Hmm.

Defense:

Even curiouser. On defense the Caps have been steady but still unremarkable. In this graph, higher would mean opponents are shooting more, so that’d be worse.

Okay, weird. The Caps are not seeing a marked improvement in their shot-attempt rate nor their shot suppression. And yet, when we look at their expected-goals numbers:

Washington has seen their share of expected goals soar. The vertical range here is roughly the spectrum of the NHL; so the Caps are ranked fifth in the NHL over the last ten games. That’s elite.

(Earlier this month I wrote that the Caps would need to play like a top-ten team to make the playoffs.)

There is a big gap between Washington’s control of expected goals versus raw volume.

By attempts the Caps are just ranked 18th over the last ten games. By expected goals, fifth. The recent separation (six percentage points) is entirely driven by shot quality.

At a glance it appears it’s happening at both ends of the ice, with defense being a bit more dramatic. The Capitals are generating more and better chances, and they are limiting opponent chances better than at any time in the season.

This is all how. I’m deliberately avoiding discussions – for now – of why the team is seeing success. Obviously players returned from injury (TJ Oshie especially) are helping, and the opponents have been way less fearsome lately, and Ovechkin’s empty-netters have been locking in wins. But I’d like to know your thoughts: what are the Caps doing differently that’s leading to all these wins?

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