The Pittsburgh Penguins announced on Saturday morning that goalie Tristan Jarry‘s lower-body injury will keep him out of play for at least a week.
With the Penguins narrowly defending their third place spot in the Metropolitan Division, losing their number-one goalie could open up space for the Capitals.
Tristan Jarry is out week to week
— Josh Yohe (@JoshYohe_PGH) April 16, 2022
Jarry, 26, has been an underrated asset to the Penguins all season. Using Natural Stat Trick’s expected goals calculation, we can see that Jarry has saved more goals than all but six goalies. Here are all-situation statistics for the top ten.
| Goalie | Team | Games | Expected Goals | Actual Goals | Above Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin | NYR | 49 | 135.7 | 99 | +39.4 |
| Ilya Sorokin | NYI | 47 | 121.2 | 106 | +29.1 |
| Darcy Kuemper | COL | 51 | 136.3 | 115 | +28.6 |
| Juuse Saros | NSH | 62 | 170.0 | 155 | +26.9 |
| Frederik Andersen | CAR | 51 | 133.3 | 104 | +25.0 |
| Jacob Markstrom | CGY | 59 | 144.3 | 129 | +23.8 |
| Tristan Jarry | PIT | 58 | 143.9 | 138 | +19.9 |
| Ville Husso | STL | 36 | 102.3 | 83 | +18.9 |
| Thatcher Demko | VAN | 60 | 164.5 | 153 | +18.5 |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | T.B | 58 | 148.4 | 142 | +15.1 |
Without Jarry, the Penguins will instead have to rely on Casey DeSmith, an inferior option on multiple levels. In 21 games, DeSmith has saved 6.4 goals below expected.
So here’s where things get interesting. The standings as of Saturday morning put Pittsburgh five points ahead of Washington with two extra games played.
Pittsburgh will likely win any tiebreaker, so the Capitals would have to pass the Penguins to win third in the division, a spot that would more likely avoid a first-round matchup with the Florida Panthers and instead pull (probably) the New York Rangers.
The Penguins will play Boston in both of their next two games (today and Thursday). Caps fans’ rooting interest should be clear.
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