I have seen the future. I know what the next decade will bring to hockey. This is not a dream. Not a hoax. Not a low-effort s#!%post. These are real things that I think will happen.
- Head contact becomes punishable in every case, following the recommendation of a growing vocal group of ex-players like Ken Dryden. Fighting, however, remains permitted, which increases tension between player autonomy and safety that some people will call hypocritical.
- Despite a few holdouts, more and more NHL coaches phase out the morning skate, preferring to rest players prior to games under the advice of sports scientists. Without having pregame lines to panic over, fan productivity at work skyrockets. Probably. I have no idea.
- Following the NBA’s lead, load management becomes a thing in hockey as teams insist on resting their star players more often. Fans miss out on seeing their heroes sometimes, but the players are ultimately better for it. The conflict between hockey tough-guy orthodoxy and evidence-based decision-making ends when rested players demonstratively outperform others in the postseason. Just kidding, that conflict never ends.
- NBC no longer has exclusive rights to broadcast NHL games, leading to new diversity in coverage as well as increased over-the-top delivery of games via streaming. The transformation is healthy for the sport, but disruptions in hockey-related revenue cause problems for the salary cap and labor relations.
- Searching for new revenue streams, the NHL sees an explosion in team-created content. Teams become miniature production studios, making more sponsored video distributed online and through their affiliated regional sports networks.
- Professional women’s hockey becomes both financially viable and modestly popular. More games are streamed directly to viewers through existing platforms like Twitch and YouTube and a few big sponsorship deals ensure the players make better money.
- The current crop of stars retire, replaced by a new generation who can be more easily split into two groups: first: the inoffensive, media-trained, zero-charisma hockey automatons; and second: the toxic bois. The former are beloved by front offices; the latter feed the media.
- Proprietary data continues to flourish. Data models increasingly drive team decisions, especially when paired with tactical analysis supported by easy-access video-on-demand. Meanwhile, free and public resources for hockey analysis gradually die off, are absorbed by private organizations, or become subscription-supported walled gardens as ad revenue becomes less reliable.
- Gambling infuses the sport with a ton of cash. Gambling advertisements start popping up everywhere in arenas and broadcasts, but especially in native video sports journalism, where the money is needed most. Regulatory scrutiny follows close behind.
- Gary Bettman leaves his position as commissioner, and with him goes the firewall of support for teams in struggling markets. Relocation follows, but not just to the same old markets where teams used to be.
- Not to be that guy in The Graduate, but I’ve got one word for you: China.
- Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby retire at the same time — both as members of clubs that drafted them — and both as heroes.
What will I get wrong, and what are your predictions?
Headline photo: FOX Sports
