The Caps own the Cup, but the future is unclear. Now, at the dawn of the offseason, it’s time to ask ourselves the big questions.
In this episode: Should Tom Wilson demand contract arbitration?
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How unfortunate for the Capitals that their two priority free agents both had career years. John Carlson will get a big contract in unrestricted free agency, but Tom Wilson is due a raise too. In his fourth year as an NHLer, Wilson finally looked like one.
| Season | Goals | Assists | Time Per Game |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | 3 | 7 | 8 |
| 2014-15 | 4 | 13 | 11 |
| 2015-16 | 7 | 16 | 13 |
| 2016-17 | 7 | 12 | 13 |
| 2017-18 | 14 | 21 | 16 |
After languishing in the bottom six for the majority of the last four seasons, Wilson got an extended look on the top line in 2017-18, and he looked great there. His 35 points are a major uptick from any previous season’s totals, his ice time per game went up by three minutes (doubling his controversial rookie season), and he was the team’s number-three penalty killing forward by ice time. That’s a pretty good showing.
Not everyone is convinced. For example, writing for Yahoo, Ryan Lambert was not impressed by the top line’s production with Wilson – especially in context of Wilson’s problems, which are obvious: penalties and suspensions.
Wilson took more penalties (58) than any player in the league this season. While Wilson also draws penalties prodigiously (42), he is still in the red (by about two goals over the season). Wilson kicked off his best year ever with two preseason suspensions. Those were not very impactful to the regular season, but they filled out the rap sheet that justified Wilson’s three-game suspension in the playoffs.
So when Wilson discusses his next deal with the Capitals, he should be careful. He might wish to be paid as a top-liner, but his track record as such is both short and spotty. And while he’s shown tremendous upside when trusted with that top-line role, Wilson’s previous four years contain plentiful evidence that he cannot drive play on his own. And though his physical play can make space for scoring, it can just as easily hurt his team when it goes too far.
The controversy around Wilson is both circumstantial and cultivated. Sure, he was put into awful circumstances at the start of his NHL career and was kept out of a scoring role. And his play as a depth forward was thoroughly unremarkable. Except once Wilson had the opportunity to score, he did – pretty darn well – though his conduct anywhere in the lineup has at times hurt both his opponents and his team. There is no tidy identity for Wilson right now, and his next contract shouldn’t presume one.
As a restricted free agent, Wilson does not have much leverage here. Should the Caps offer him a modest bridge deal, I’d be surprised if Wilson forces the issue and demands arbitration. It might not go well for him.
