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Captain’s guarantee: numbers for the morning after

Alex Ovechkin predicted that his team would be returning home for Game Five with the series tied at two wins apiece and his prediction came true when the Washington Capitals downed the Columbus Blue Jackets 4-1 at Nationwide Arena in Game Four. Ovi can see the future. I cant remember any other win guarantee in the past that went wrong, it never happened, don’t know what you’re talking about.

The Capitals out-shot the Blue Jackets 33 to 24, but were out-attempted at five-on-five 50 to 45.

  • Braden Holtby, the man who holds the second highest save percentage (.932) in NHL playoff history, allowed one goal on 24 shots. That’s the first game that Holtby has started where he has allowed less than two goals since November 18 against the Minnesota Wild. He has chosen quite the right time to seemingly snap out of his season long funk.
  • Tom Wilson was an absolute animal. Not only did Wilson score his second goal in as many games and add an assist, the only players that took the ice for more time than him at five-on-five were Dmitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen. Wilson also led the team with eight overall shot attempts, seven shots on goal, and three hits.
  • After Game Two, Alex Ovechkin said that the Caps would for sure win Game Three and Game Four in Columbus. Well, they did just that and Ovechkin himself flourished in both road affairs. In his now franchise leading 101st playoff game, Ovechkin assisted on the Caps second goal and scored their third one himself to now give him six points in four playoff games this April. Ovi finished the game with five shots on goal and seven total shot attempts.
  • The Capitals have scored first in every single game of this series. Since 2009-10, they are 26-8 in the playoffs when they score first.
  • There is a lot to talk about in regards to what happens after Jay Beagle wins face-offs, but for now lets just recognize the fact that he went 14-3 in the dot (82.4 percent) Thursday night. Seven of those draws came in the defensive zone. That’s an unreal success rate.
  • Nice of Evgeny Kuznetsov to wake up with a three point night. Those points are Kuzy’s first since he scored the first two goals of this series in Game One. His line was easily the best forward grouping out there.
  • Big shoutout to the pairing of Dmitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen. The two who were unquestionably the top Caps pairing in 2016-17, struggled to find that same success in 2017-18, but they have shown up in the playoffs so far. No one on the team played more minutes than them overall and they were the victors of their matchup against Artemi Panarin‘s line. The pairing finished with 65.5 percent of the five-on-five shot attempts taken when they were on the ice, 60 percent of the scoring chances, and 57.1 percent of the high danger chances.
  • Some may fret at the Blue Jackets attempting more shot attempts than the Caps, but we must factor in score effects to that equation. When adjusted for score and venue the Capitals actually got 53.8 percent of the five-on-five shot attempts in Game Four.
  • When we do that same adjustment to get a total for all four games, only the Winnipeg Jets (62.5 percent) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (57.5 percent) have been better than the Caps (55.7 percent). That sample is obviously incredibly small and quality of competition must be used for context, but I’ll take every good sign I can get.

Numbers thanks to Hockey-reference.com, Hockeystats.ca, NaturalStatTrick.com, and Corsica.hockey.

Full RMNB Coverage of Caps at Blue Jackets

Headline Photo: Kirk Irwin

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