TJ Oshie: 2016-17 Season Review

TJ Oshie has made the Capitals more fun, more awesome, and more wholesome this season. But any new contract would almost certainly be a disappointment.

By The Numbers

Visualization by HockeyViz

About this visualization: This series of charts made by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows various metrics for the player over the course of the 2016-17 season. A short description of each chart:

1. Most common teammates during 5-on-5
2. Ice time per game, split up by game state
3. 5-on-5 adjusted shot attempts by the team (black) and opponents (red)
4. 5-on-5 adjusted shooting percentage by the team (black) and opponents (red)
5. Individual scoring events by the player
6. 5-on-5 adjusted offensive (black) and defensive (red) zone starts

Peter’s Take

Thirty-three goals! Boy, howdy! For the first time in precisely one month of Sundays, the Washington Capitals weren’t led in goals by Alex Ovechkin. Instead, they were led by Alex Ovechkin and TJ Oshie. That is amazing.

…And he’ll never get close to it again.

Oshie’s 137 percent increase in 5-on-5 scoring from last season was exhilarating, but it was the function of a near-tripling of his shooting percentage (26.1, up from 9.2 a season ago). Oshie’s underlying numbers – his actual individual shot rate – actually declined, but maybe that’s to be expected when you score on one of every four shots.

I mean – don’t get me wrong: Oshie is a deadly sniper, but no one is this deadly. This is not a repeatable performance. Oshie did not all of a sudden figure out how to literally double his accuracy (his all-situation shooting percentage over the last 7 seasons is 11.8, but it was 23.1 this year). Oshie’s finishing will regress hard next season. That coupled with a likely age-related decline in volume will make it difficult for Oshie to score even 20 goals.

So while we give credit to Oshie, let’s not go nuts. And when I say ‘we’, I mean the Capitals. And when I say ‘go nuts,’ I mean ‘sign him a contract worth seven million dollars per annum’.

Almost a decade ago, Caps owner Ted Leonsis wrote the following advice on rebuilding a sports team to Hogs Haven:

Add veterans to the team via shorter term deals as free agents. Signing long-term, expensive deals for vets is very risky. We try to add vets to the mix for two year or three year deals.

So TJ Oshie just wrapped a two year deal. Check. He will without a doubt be one of the most expensive unrestricted free agents available this summer. Check. At age 30, he’s a vet many years past his prime – even if illusory shooting percentage tempts us to think otherwise. Check. A big contract of Oshie is exactly what Ted preaches against.

A firm handshake and a big thank you is all the Caps should give TJ Oshie this summer.

Tustin Jimberlake on RMNB

• How ’bout ‘dem shootout goals? There are a lot of these.

Oshie in a shootout. Guess what happens? #CapsCanes #RockTheRed pic.twitter.com/afwTnD145e

— Washington Capitals (@Capitals) December 17, 2016

• For the record, and this is Peter speaking, I did not bet Pat that Oshie would score 30 goals. I did that last season, and I lost. I just joked about it this season because joy is scarce to me. So here’s that joke.
• In the loffs, Oshie got written up for a pivotal high-sticking penalty, but it wasn’t actually a high stick.
• CSN’s Jill Sorenson had a great series of fan interviews this season, but none better than when her interview with Wish Kid and Oshie fanatic Addy Flint ended just before Oshie scored.

🚨 equalizer from @tjoshie77! #CapsCats on @CSNMA pic.twitter.com/IIWBRbWwQh

— #CapsFightCancer (@Capitals) November 6, 2016

• Oshie’s time with Addy was just one in a pattern of him being a total stand-up dude. Here’s Oshie spending time with a gold star family, here’s Oshie going out of his way to shake hands with a million vets, and here’s Oshie removing Radko Gudas from a hockey game. All commendable stuff.
• Oshie missed some time this season after tweaking his shoulder in this collision with Riley Sheahan. It happened again when Dion Phaneuf almost-injured Oshie, and then went back made sure he did it for real. Justin Williams let it slip sometime later that Oshie had a concussion. Man, that should really be disclosed by the teams.

• Pat warned us back in February that the risk of Oshie’s next contract is high. Gosh, I hope they don’t step on this rake. It sure seems like they want to step on this rake. (Though John Shannon got this scoop way wrong.) If the Caps do sign Oshie, they’ll have to do something about Orpik, right? Or will the cap escalator give them an out? (It will not.)

• Family time!
  • At the playground with the Alzners.
  • Dressing up as the Incredibles. (Where is my super suit?!)
  • Tree-skirt poncho.
  • Warm-up hello to little Lyla.
  • Scoring for dad.
  • Kickin’ it with Lyla while she’s on the mend.
  • Smoochin’ baby Leni.
  • Family vacay with the Alzners and Winniks.
  • Family vacay with the Shats.
• Please read Elyse’s item about the dads’ trip with Oshie’s dad, Tim, whom I’ll just call Coach from now on. It’s a special story.
• Butt slashes, an ennealogy: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, Part VII, Part VIII, and Part IX.

• Mika Zibanejad slashed Oshie in the face, so he needed 10 stitches around his mouth. (You can see above.)
• The Olympic synergy of this friendship is stunning.
• Please do always keep in mind that Oshie is jokes. Funny, funny jokes. Filthy jokes. Muffin-esque jokes.

Splits the defense, looks back, stuffs 5-hole #CapsBruins pic.twitter.com/nWrIIVmBbQ

— Washington Capitals (@Capitals) February 2, 2017

• Finally, Timothy Jimothy. (Credit to @notcapitals)

Your Turn

Will the Capitals re-sign TJ Oshie? Should the Caps re-sign TJ Oshie? What’s your favorite T.J. acronym?

Read more: Japers’ Rink, Stars and Sticks

Headline photo: Amanda Bowen