Dylan Wheatley is probably the angriest RMNB commenter, but that’s okay because he’s funny. I understood maybe 35 percent of this analysis/rant on the Caps’ pending free agents, but I thought you should read it anyway.
The playoffs have ended, as they must, the dog Erdogan has consolidated his power, and The Big Mac is hootin’ to give TJ NoShow a giant stupid deal. A lot of you out there in Wood Buffalo and The Soo think this is a good thing; it isn’t. No hockey player over the age of thirty should ever be given anything but a single cheese sandwich and a pat on the back. Giving Oshie this monster deal is going to squeeze the Caps’ cap flexibility, and they need flexibility because they have a bunch of young Euro jerkholes who listen to techno to give big moneybucks to. Young Euros win cups, pals.
European #1: Evgeny Kuznetsov
Likely contract type: long, expensive, eats up UFA years.
Kuzy is a golden hockey god – no two ways about it. He’s got the goods and he’s got the looks. He has a beautiful wife and he speaks Russian so Ovi both respects him and likes him. Russians know a winner.
We’re gonna look at Geno Malkin’s 2008 contract to see what kind of value Kuznetsov has for a few reasons:
- they’re both Russian,
- they have the same first name, and least importantly,
- they’re both #1 centers playing #2 on Cup teams.
In 2008, RFA Ev’ni Malky signed a five-year, 43.5-mil dollarino contract that ate up four UFA years, and had an annual averaged cap hit of $8.7 mil. The salary cap in 08-09 was $56.8 mil. So his contract was worth about 15 percent of their cap.
The cap in 17-18 should be around $76 mil, if it moves. That’d be 11.4 million dollars.
Will Kuznetsov get that? Like crackers he will, pal. Malkin was a dominant player, and his contract was stupid and bad (although he won a Conn Smythe that year so maybe it wasn’t that bad). Kuzya’ll be asking for 8 x 6, I think, and he’ll be signed for 7 x 5. He goes UFA eligible May 19, 2019, so that’d eat up three UFA years.
He’ll be making more than Nicky, so expect some European smoldering glares between them.
European #2: Andre Burakovsky
Likely contract type: Short, cheap, RFA bridge.
Dre’s great. I love Dre. People always ask me Dylan, how can we get more Dre? And i tell them, I’ll get us the best Dre, only the best. And the news, the news wants us to think the Dre is going to be expensive, but we’ll get the Dre for cheap. The Dre will be cheap for us because we will negotiate for it. We’re good negotiators, we’re the best. This team is the greatest. The greatest. And we’ll get Dre, and we’ll have him and we’ll be great with him.
We’ll look at Aleksander Barkov and Alex Galchenyuk here for a few reasons, but mainly because they all have Russian-sounding names but aren’t Russian. Those guys are centers, not wingers, so they’re nominally more valuable, but RFA deals don’t necessarily reflect that the way UFA deals do.
Barkov took a three-year, $10.725 mil bridge deal in 2013 ($3.525 mil AAV), and Galchenyuk did a $5.6-mil, two-year deal just last year ($2.8 mil AAV).
Where does that put Burra? Not in a great position. I think he takes a 3 x 3 bridge deal, but he could also come in under that, maybe as low as $2 mil AAV. He’ll be cheap for a few years to come. After that, he won’t be, and the Oshie deal is going to start looking very stupid right around then.
European #3: Dmitry Orlov
Likely contract type: Whatever the Russian Lidstrom wants
Who knows where we’d be if the 2016 coup against Erdogan’s government had succeeded. Unfortunately that’s not the timeline we live in, this is. And here, in this reality, Dmitry Orlov is gonna make Fethullah Gülen money.
How much money? Orlov goes FA eligible next summer (2018), so that leaves us with two types of contract: a one-year bridge deal, or a big massive almost-making-UFA-money deal. I think he gets the latter.
The Caps don’t have a huge amount of depth in their D pool, and losing Schmidt this summer (more on that later) isn’t going to help matters. And while Bowey and Siegenthaler will deffo crack the lineup when they’re ready, after them talent tends to drop off considerably. Couple that with Carlson’s apparent drop-off in play, plus an aging Niskanen, and Mac’s gonna want to lock up his soon to be number-one wall-pincher for a while.
I won’t look at comparables for this situation; it’s too specific, too inherent. A situation like this demands a look at several factors, not excluding slavic phrenology, left-side second pairing tarot readings, and messages hidden in locker room victory techno.
I think the Nasty Novokuznetski gets a 5.5 x 5 deal, and he could go richer, maybe even 6 x 6. He’s Subban, he’s Karlsson; He’s the God Damn Russian Lidstrom.
European #4: Philipp Grubauer
Likely contract type: Washington Capitals Backup Goalie Cheese Sandwich
This guy’s name ends with two Ps, just in case you forgot to pronounce the first one when you pick him please, Herr GMGM.
Grubi’s got 66 NHL games under his pads, although only 51 of those are starts because he backs up a headcase water whisperer who when he’s not winning Vezina trophies and stopping 40-plus shots gets inside his own head because the feng shui of the shots he’s facing didn’t line up right and he requires a bit of rescuing. He’s walked away with 28 wins, while posting a .923 save percentage and a 2.25 GAA. Pretty standard backup Caps goalie figures.
So what do expiring RFA caps backup goalies get? Historically they get traded. Grubi’s gonna get a two-year deal to kill off the last of his RFA years, at around $1.2-1.5 mil AAV. Maybe he gets two mil a year if Mac’s feeling generous with the house’s money.
After that, he’s either a Golden Knight, or maybe a Jet. Yeah, he’ll be a jet.
Poor Grubi.
European #5: Brent Connolly
Likely contract type: First Round Disappointer
Is he a Euro? Maybe he isn’t, but he sure reminds me of Wojtek Wolski, so for now he is. What do guys like Wolski and Fehr and a million other first rounders that just turned into nothing get? They get anxiety about staying in the show, pal, they get ulcers about riding the bus again. They don’t get money, I’ll tell you that. Connolly’s even more of a bust than those guys cause he didn’t even have a decent few years before he dropped off. Maybe Stevie Y stared him down and he made a poo in the bed, but it’s probably best not to think too much about these things.
Connolly’s having a great year, but he’s a third liner with bad history, and his agent knows this. Mac is going to take him to the cleaners. 2020-21 will be his first UFA eligible season, and I think Mac takes him for the two-year bridge to keep things tight. Look for him to be getting a 2-year deal at about $1.5 mil per. He could go cheaper still.
Up Schmidt’s Creek
Here’s the one you’ve all been waiting for, the only RFA who matters, the blueline smiler.
Schmidt’s having a great year, because he’s a great player. Playoff performer, large face, everything you’d want. After finally getting a rego sweater last year, Schmidt seemed to have made it. Then the Caps somehow traded for Kevin Shattenkirk in a deal that makes me think that the only time Doug Armstrong watches hockey is when it gets accidentally left on the TVs at Chili’s. Out went Schmidt’s nightly sweater, and with it his chances at scoring a bumper payday this summer.
Historically, undrafted players get the shaft when it comes to contracts. They just do. Schmidty ain’t no Marty St Louis, and even if he were he’s not in a great position right now. He’s got a year of RFA eligibility left, after that he can sign whatever horrible deal he wants.
Lovejoy, Tanev, and Krug are favorable comparables for our man Schmidt, and all signed 3-year deals for about a million AAV a few years ago. Maybe Schmidt gets 1.1 x 3. Maybe he gets a cheese sandwich pal.
He’s under-appreciated by his team, either by design or ignorance, but he won’t be under-appreciated by the Knights when they nab him, which is 100 percent what is going to happen to him. GMGM will still only give him a mil per year deal, but he’ll get top-pairing minutes and maybe an A to wear for half the year, so that’s something.
The cap’s gonna be $76 mil next year (or it won’t). These six will come in just under 20, and the caps have $51 mil already committed next year. That doesn’t leave enough room to sign Oshie to the idiotic $6-million idiot dollar deal you idiots want him signed for, you idiots. He’s gotta go, you idiots.
Signing Oshie is an mistake. Sure he’s tenacious as hell, and forechecks better than anyone not named Crosby, but that’s not worth losing the farm over. Besides, now he and Crosby can forecheck together <3
Info and stats from capfriendly, wikipedia, nhl.com, tea leaves, the whispering wind, and double secret Russian LHD SIGINT.
You can follow Dylan on Twitter.
