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Caps’ bad beat by the Pens: numbers for the morning after

On Thursday night the Caps dropped Game One to the Pittsburgh Penguins by a score of 3-2. Another one-goal game, this time with the Caps on the wrong side. It featured a spirited two-goal comeback by the Caps and some general domination, including goals by Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov.

In the Corsi Hockey League, the Caps would’ve taken the W in a landslide. This was their most dominant possession game all season, with shot attempts at plus-40 (!!!) and scoring chances at plus-26 (!!!!!!!). There are complaints, but overall the Caps just need to keep doing everything they did last night, and then the edge in scoring will tilt in their favor. Probably.

Key Stats

  • The pairing of Brooks Orpik and Kevin Shattenkirk dominated possession but got beaten when it mattered most. Orpik was on the ice for 25 shot attempts in favor of the Caps at five-on-five, and just eight against. Some of that was matchup-based, as they didn’t have the toughest competition, but still… that kind of domination is amazing no matter who it’s against. However, they were burned for the crucial go-ahead goal by Nick Bonino and ended up with an on-ice goal differential of minus-one, which is all that matters in the postseason.
  • We talked about how Marc-Andre Fleury was the difference in Round One and how he the Caps would have to get in his head early this series. Well, that hasn’t gone well so far, as Fleury was without a doubt a major difference-maker last night. (He made 49 saves to close out Columbus in game five of that series, and posted another 28 on Thursday). The Caps have to figure out how to do more than look dangerous, they need to be dangerous. What would help in that department is if they could shoot on target more consistently. They took 72 shot attempts, which is great, but 25 were blocked and another 17 missed the net. In the end, 30 shots on goal is solid but there were frequently defensemen around to clear pucks out. That said, run these game stats ten times and the Caps probably win nine of them.
  • Andre Burakovsky has to get a puck in the back of the net, and soon. By all statistical metrics, Burra was incredible. He was a plus-twenty in on-ice shot attempts. Auston Matthews was a plus-24 the entire first round. He had eight individual shot attempts (second to Kuzy with nine), and only one of those hit the net. As good as he was, he’s got to be better and the Caps need third and fourth line scoring.

Unsung Hero of the Night

I just kind of ripped Andre Burakovsky above, but this is still going to him. He was on the ice for a bazillion shot attempts for, a bunch of scoring chances, and most importantly, no goals against. Other solid choices would be Tom Wilson and Lars Eller who both generally stood out and had ungodly possession stats.

Trend to Watch

Definitely a bummer to drop that one, especially after clawing back from being down two. But don’t fear, the Caps are just in the process of flipping the script. They just so happen to be 8-1 in Game One (all time) against Pittsburgh, and they are 1-8 all time in those same series’. So hopefully the Caps get right back at it in game two.

Full Coverage of Caps vs Penguins

Stats courtesy of Corsica.Hockey.

Photo by Patrick McDermott/NHLI.

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