Caps win the coin flip: numbers for the morning after

Friday night, the Caps beat the Leafs 2-1 in overtime, taking a 3-2 lead in the series. It was yet another stressful night, with both teams trading chances and with the momentum seeming to swing almost shift to shift. The Leafs can hang.

Highlights included the game winner by Justin Williams on a defensive breakdown and another goal by TJ Oshie to kick off the scoring (he now has seven points in five games). The lowlight was an existentially terrifying hit on Alex Ovechkin by Nazem Kadri, with the big Russian somehow returning mostly unscathed for the second period. Also, Tom Wilson took four penalties (that can’t happen) which the Caps deftly killed, and Auston Matthews potted his third goal of the series.

The final shot attempt tally was 50 to 48 in favor of the Caps (at five-on-five), and scoring chances were 22-23 with the edge to the Leafs. The series could hardly be any closer.

Key Stats

• This was the fourth game of the series to go to overtime. Even worse, this is the 42nd of the last 53 Caps playoff games to have been decided by one goal. No, you aren’t crazy, that is by far the highest percentage of any team during that span (I’ve checked). The Caps just cannot stop letting things come down to the wire. It has to be a nailbiter, it can be no other way. Tonight they were on the positive side of the coin flip, but someone should do a medical study on us as a fanbase to see how many years the stress has shaved off our collective lifespans.
  

  With tonight’s contest going to OT, 42 of the #Capitals’ last 53 playoff games will have been decided by one goal.

  — Jake Russell (@_JakeRussell) April 22, 2017

• The Ovechkin line continues to perform fairly well against their primary matchup of Nikita Zaitsev and Jake Gardiner. This was a matchup that happened in Toronto and Barry Trotz kept it going here in DC as well. The Ovi line was minus-one in shot attempts overall at five-on-five, but when they skated against the Zaitsev pairing they were moderately in the positives. Once again here is Muneeb Alam’s excellent matchup chart, which is a great way to visualize possession. Also, note the dominance of the Nate Schmidt pairing when skating against the Kadri line.
  

  TOR-WSH G5. Good things a little more likely to happen with Nate Schmidt on the ice than off. pic.twitter.com/5giJD7yaPo

  — Muneeb Alam (@muneebalamcu) April 22, 2017

• The fourth line didn’t stand out per se, but they did stop the bleeding. They were the only Caps trio to end the night in the positives in terms of possession, at plus-four on five-on-five. Jay Beagle also went nine out of 11 on the faceoff dot (Backstrom was also quite strong). They also got only five minutes of ice time, so they are without a doubt back to being the fourth line, and Beagle as an individual was deeply underwater with five-on-five possession (minus-seven). The top two lines are getting used almost equally, while there is now a big drop off to the third and fourth.

Unsung Hero of the Game

Let’s go with our favorite, Nate Schmidt. Really though, with Alzner out having a player like Schmidt to step in is an absolute luxury. Schmidt was a plus-eight in shot attempts and a plus-six in scoring chances last night and wasn’t on for any goals for or against.

Trend to Watch

We mentioned above that there is increased hierarchy in the lines, and there has also been significantly more of a defense ice-time hierarchy than in the regular season. Dmitry Orlov is officially a workhorse, playing 23.5 minutes per game at even strength during the playoffs. That is about two minutes more than Matt Niskanen at second most, although specials teams time could be playing a part there. Brooks Orpik and Nate Schmidt are playing seven minutes per game less than Orlov at even strength, though Schmidt wasn’t in the lineup for the long overtime in game two.

Stats courtesy of NaturalStatTrick and Corsica.Hockey.

Photo byRob Carr/Getty Images.