Caps stop the Wild from completing the comeback: numbers for the morning after

March 29, 2017 8:39 am

Tuesday night, the Capitals held on to beat the Minnesota Wild 5-4 in overtime to start a five-game road trip. The Caps just barely skirted by on this one, propped up almost entirely by special teams, Braden Holtby, and their top-line star power.

Alex Ovechkin had what was (surprisingly) his first ever three-PPG game and his 17th career hat trick. TJ Oshie continued to pressure the captain for the team lead in goals with two of his own (including the OT winner), and Nick Backstrom had yet another three-assist night.

Overall, this was a low-event game in terms of shot attempts. The two teams combined for only 60 shot attempts at five-on-five. The Caps alone produced 74 in their 2-1 win over Columbus. In the end, the Wild had the better of possession, with 38 five-on-five shot attempts to just 22 by the Caps.

Key Stats

The Caps were anemic when it came to generating offense. This was one of the most lifeless offensive games the Caps have had all season long. The Caps’ 35 shot attempts (all situations) tied for their second fewest of any match this season. In terms of five-on-five shots, it was the worst offensive game the Caps have had this season with just 22 attempts and a measly 10 on net.
It was a rough night for Dmitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen. Orlov was a minus-eight in shot attempts at five-on-five, while Niskanen was a minus-seven. They were also both on for two goals against, and Orlov took a minor penalty (albeit an extremely weak one). It was an uncharacteristically listless showing for what is usually the Caps’ best D-pairing.
Holtby deserves praise for yet another 40-win season. Holtby is only the third player in NHL history to accomplish that feat in three consecutive seasons. Last night his stats aren’t going to show it, but he stood tall on a number of strong chances by the Wild. In fact, scoring chances were tilted 28 to 14 in favor of the Wild (all situations). The Caps have been excellent this year, but their steady goaltending continues to be a driving force behind their success.

Unsung Hero of the Game

Any one of the top line trio would get this, except that they wouldn’t be the most “unsung” recipients. No, this actually goes to Brooks Orpik, and not because of his five-on-five play. He skated more than five minutes on the penalty kill and only saw four shot attempts against during that time and one in favor of the Caps. Only two of those shot attempts against were unblocked, in five minutes of penalty killing. To put that in perspective, while Brooks was PK’ing the Caps saw a rate of unblocked shot attempts against that was one-third of what it was at regular five-on-five play last night. Also, his expected goals against per 60 minutes was only 2.2, lowest of any of the primary penalty killers by a wide margin.

Trend to Watch

Alex Ovechkin may currently be answering the question as to whether a player can “flip the switch” come playoffs. Having been relatively “quiet” (by his standards) for a good portion of the year, he’s been very obviously heating up lately. The statistics back this up as well, and even more interesting is that it looks like it happened last year, too. His on-ice possession has skyrocketed over the last 15-games, which is partially a function of how well all of the top trio has been playing. Last season, he entered the playoffs at 58 percent score-adjusted possession over the final stretch, while this year he is up to 55 percent over the last 15 games (from a season-minimum of 46 percent). Furthermore, not only does he now have five goals in his last four games, but his rate of taking shot attempts is skyrocketing (see the chart below). There very well may be something to the idea that he has been humming along at less than his maximum, and is now deliberately starting to turn up the heat.