The Washington Capitals continue to roll. After a slight sputter coming out of the bye week, the guys in red have won five or their last six and a franchise-record 15 straight at home. This is the best team in the NHL.
But, things could slow down at some point. Back in January, Peter asked if the Caps are lucky or if they’re good. He correctly concluded that they are both lucky and good. To say that there’s some luck baked into the Caps results isn’t a slight. While getting lucky is often associated with bad teams, good teams are lucky just as often as bad ones. In fact, it takes a whole lot of luck to be the last team standing in June.
Just how lucky has this Caps team been? Well, the difference between the Caps goals for percentage and expected goals for percentage is the biggest of any team for a single season since 2007. By a mile. Here’s a look at the top 30.
I cut out the individual season markers to make the graph less cramped. That’s the 2016-17 Caps in first and the 2009-10 team in fourth.
The good news, even if the Caps’ luck turns, is that their underlying numbers tell us they’re still one of the top teams in the league. But the Caps shouldn’t merely count on their underlying numbers mitigating the effects of a slump, they should be looking for ways to continuously improve the process that results in those strong underlying numbers. The Caps should be looking to maximize every part of their roster so, if the hockey gods stop smiling on them, the fall is as soft and padded as possible.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the numbers.
Forwards
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | Rel SA% | GF% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vrana | 15 | 144 | 59.1 | +8.2 | 81.8 | 103.6 |
| Eller | 63 | 696 | 57.7 | +6.5 | 68.7 | 103.4 |
| Connolly | 50 | 508 | 56.5 | +4.7 | 78.3 | 107.1 |
| Burakovsky | 52 | 589 | 56.2 | +4.4 | 67.0 | 104.3 |
| Williams | 63 | 784 | 55.6 | +3.7 | 63.0 | 102.4 |
| Johansson | 64 | 862 | 53.6 | +1.2 | 64.1 | 103.8 |
| Kuznetsov | 64 | 860 | 52.8 | 0.0 | 65.4 | 104.8 |
| Oshie | 51 | 654 | 52.6 | -0.3 | 67.6 | 106.1 |
| Backstrom | 64 | 851 | 51.1 | -2.4 | 62.2 | 104.1 |
| Wilson | 64 | 651 | 50.7 | -2.5 | 63.2 | 104.5 |
| Ovechkin | 64 | 870 | 50.6 | -3.3 | 60.0 | 103.8 |
| Winnik | 54 | 524 | 49.9 | -3.2 | 69.3 | 105.5 |
| Beagle | 63 | 631 | 46.7 | -7.7 | 65.6 | 106.0 |
Defense
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | Rel SA% | GF% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niskanen | 61 | 994 | 55.8 | +4.2 | 66.3 | 103.5 |
| Orlov | 64 | 1097 | 54.8 | +3.4 | 66.8 | 104.3 |
| Schmidt | 54 | 759 | 54.8 | +2.5 | 62.5 | 103.4 |
| Orpik | 61 | 891 | 53.7 | +1.3 | 70.1 | 105.5 |
| Carlson | 58 | 917 | 51.0 | -3.4 | 60.1 | 103.5 |
| Alzner | 64 | 1019 | 48.7 | -6.1 | 65.3 | 105.6 |
| Shattenkirk | 3 | 42.1 | 48.2 | -7.2 | 34.9 | 96.3 |
| Chorney | 17 | 222 | 45.9 | -5.7 | 71.8 | 108.6 |
Observations
- The Caps rank third in the NHL with a 52.7 shot attempt percentage. Over the last 25 games the Caps rank ninth at 51.1 percent.
- One area the Caps can look to maximize their roster is through matchups. Saturday night was a perfect example of something Barry Trotz should reconsider. As you can see from Muneeb Alam’s chart below, the Caps chose the Beagle line and Carlzner to match up against the Flyers top line, as indicated by the yellow bubbles.
https://twitter.com/muneebalamcu/status/838227880081559552
- Trotz doesn’t always use the Beagle line in this role. He often goes power vs power. If Trotz is not going to reunite the Swede line that was great in the shutdown role early in the season, he would be smart to stick with power vs power instead of giving the Beagle line the toughest assignments.
- The Caps have arguably the best third line in hockey. The problem is that this line has been used as a fourth line 11 times over the last 12 games. This is not just a byproduct of Andre Burakovsky‘s injury. The “third” line skated fewer minutes than the Beagle line three straight times and 13 out of 18 games before Burakovsky went down. Trotz is a good coach but this is a horrendous coaching decision. You’ve got the best third line in hockey, coach. Start playing it more. (And yes, the line dominates possession even more with Jakub Vrana in Burakovsky’s spot.)
- Speaking of Vrana, it’s time to welcome him into the snapshot. In his limited sample he’s been the team’s best possession player. He ranks fourth in individual shot attempts per 60 at 13.2 and third in individual scoring chance per 60 with 3.3. The Caps have had the luxury of bringing Vrana along slowly this season. But with some important forward pieces probably not returning next season, the young forward has shown he deserves a shot in the top nine full-time next season.
- It’s time for a shakeup in the top six. Such a move has made sense for a while, but the Caps understandably stuck with the combos that were netting them 5-plus goals in seemingly every game. Thirteen different forward combos have skated 50-plus minutes for the team this season. The Caps current top line ranks 11th in shot attempt percentage, ninth in scoring chance percentage, and sixth in expected goals for percentage. This has been masked by their 13.1 shooting percentage. If your top line with your two franchise forwards is performing so underwhelmingly, it’s time for a shakeup and there’s no time to do it like after two straight games where you’ve had trouble scoring goals. Oh, and Alex Ovechkin hasn’t scored an even strength goal in 14 games.
- A good place to start would be a flip of Evgeny Kuznetsov and Nick Backstrom. Johansson-Backstrom-Williams has a 60.4 shot attempt percentage in 63 minutes together this season and Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Oshie has a 59.0 shot attempt percentage in 71 minutes together this season.
- Nate Schmidt should be in the lineup over Brooks Orpik. We all know it won’t happen because of salaries and respect for veterans, but Schmidt is one of the Caps’ six best defensemen and deserves to be in the lineup on a regular basis. If Taylor Chorney rotates in over Schmidt the rest of the way, we may need to call an emergency blog meeting.
- It will be interesting to see how Orpik does away from Schmidt, a noted Orpik whisperer.
- God bless the coaching staff for sticking with the pairing of Dmitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen. Back in September we, and by we I mean I, talked about how these two could be a great fit together. Since they’ve been put together, they’ve been arguably the best pairing in the NHL. Among defensive pairings across the league with 200-plus minutes together this season, Nisklov ranks first with a 57.9 shot attempt percentage and second with a 72.9 goals for percentage. Please keep this pairing together for the rest of their time together in DC.
- Kevin Shattenkirk has been added to the snapshot for the sake of novelty but there’s really no value in looking at just over 40 minutes of ice time.
- Did I mention that Lars Eller should be playing more than Jay Beagle, every single night?
Glossary
- GP. Games played.
- TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5.
- SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
- Rel SA%. The percentage difference of shot attempts the Caps had when the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench.
- GF%. Goals-for percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
- PDO. (A meaningless acronym.) The sum of the player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may be reflected in goal%.
All stats from Corsica unless otherwise noted or linked
Headline image: Rob Carr
