Karl Alzner played in every game this season and had huge success as long as you don’t count scoring, which he is really terrible at. But appreciating Alzner’s 2015-16 puts us in conflict with ourselves: how do we explain a player who enjoys great outcomes (goal differential) without good process (puck possession)?
Let’s kick off the 2015-16 player reviews right now.
By the Numbers
| 82 | games played |
| 21.3 | time on ice per game |
| 4 | goals |
| 17 | assists |
| 50.5 | 5v5 shot-attempt percentage |
| 54.7 | 5v5 goal percentages |
Visualization by Hockeyviz
About this visualization: This series of charts made by Micah McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows various metrics for the player over the course of the 2015-16 season. A short description of each chart:
- Most common teammates during 5v5
- Ice time per game, split up by game state
- 5v5 adjusted shot attempts by the team (black) and opponents (red) when the player was on ice
- 5v5 shooting percentage by the team (black) and opponents (red) when the player was on ice
- Individual scoring events by the player
Peter’s Take
Karl Alzner clocked 1744 minutes for the Washington Capitals during the regular season, second most behind his D partner, Matt Niskanen. Alzner also holds the iron man title for the Caps for most consecutive games played, not missing one since entering the league full time in 2010. That’s remarkable; Alzner is the Capitals’ constant, their foundation on the blue line, playing big minutes every night. That alone holds tremendous value for the team, but we should pay as much attention to how those minutes went.
With 50.3 percent possession and minus-2.3 percent relative possession (measured by shot attempts, weight by score state), both team lows among full-time D-men, Alzner struggled during 5v5. That struggle was obfuscated by a team-high 93.9 percent on-ice save percentage (thank you based Holtby).
In the past I’d vigorously mitigate Alzner’s possession trouble by pointing to his deployments — mostly in the Caps zone and mostly against top opponents — though the literature has mellowed on using deployment as exculpation for getting shelled.
At least I still have the refuge of shot quality. Despite the high opponent shot rates, Alzner (and Niskanen) have been among the best on the team at limiting scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances. As much as it bothers me to say it, Alzner really does seem good at “keeping shots to the outside,” which betrays value in the player not evident in his corsi scores.
(I feel dirty writing that.)
Alzner has all summer to recover from the barrage of injuries he suffered this season, which is good because his duties will only increase in 2016-17. As Brooks Orpik is asked to do less as he ages and Carlson and Niskanen take big power-play shifts, Alzner may have even more to do during 5v5. I think he’s up to the task. Here’s to the next 82.
Karl on RMNB
- Alzner is Washington’s reigning iron man for consecutive games played, a feat he’ll continue through next season only because the Caps got eliminated in the same game he got hurt.
- That awkward moment when Alzner joined Pierre McGuire between the benches.
- Alzner skipped a lot of practices and morning skates during the playoffs, hinting that the Caps’ iron man was a bit dinged up. He managed to see the Nats at least.
- Playoff injuries: torn groin, broken thumb, strained oblique.
- Fan service (and again)
- One of my least favorite narratives is the idea that the Capitals franchise is structurally built to fail in the postseason. Karl agrees: “I don’t think this team has any playoff history. This is our first playoffs together, so, in my opinion, no. Sorry to be cheeky, but that’s the truth I think.”
- Alzner is the team’s unofficial bestower of nicknames.
- A goal scorer’s goal and a big smile:
- Finally, Alzner is beloved by his teammates, and plays like this are why.
Your Turn
How do you reconcile Alzner’s low possession scores — do deployments and shot quality matter to you? Do you think Alzner will another 82 games next season? And will he ever score more than 5 goals a season?
Read more: Japers Rink
