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Let Your Heart Soar: Week 24 Snapshot

By Patrick Holden

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April 3, 2016 11:58 am

CapsPreds3-18_28

Photo: Amanda Bowen

We’re entering the final week of the regular season, which means the weekly snapshot for 2015-16 is nearing a close. Taking a look back, even just at the titles, the tone tells the story. The Caps have had an amazing regular season that, as it has begun to wind down, has caused some guarded concern. Give a scroll down the titles and let your heart soar as you relive the winningest regular season in franchise history.

  1. The Caps Are Who We Thought They Were
  2. The Long Road
  3. Listening, Not Fixing
  4. Stay the Course
  5. Spread the Love Around
  6. And the Beat Goes On
  7. Bless You, Braden
  8. Keep On Keepin’ On
  9. Assess Not Inside Heads
  10. The Past Can’t Be Changed
  11. Inflection Point
  12. This Team, Y’all
  13. Eyes On the Prize
  14. Snow/ASG Break
  15. Snow/ASG Break
  16. Rolling the Rock
  17. Domination Consumes You
  18. The Extra Two Percent
  19. Prepare For Takeoff
  20. Just a Little Patience
  21. Keep Your Composure
  22. Taking Stock
  23. False Dichotomy

Peter started the snapshot in the Fall of 2013. At the time, I was swamped in my last year of work for grad school, an internship, and a job. The snapshot was one way of the main ways that I kept up with the team. But it didn’t just help me keep up with the team. His insights and approach furthered my understanding of things like shot attempts, puck luck, and so on. I wasn’t yet writing for RMNB at that time and, as a reader of the site, I looked forward to reading it every single Sunday.

Long story short, it was a bit of a trip for me, two years later, to be writing the snapshots on a regular basis. We all know that Peter’s tone, thought process, and way with words are unique and insightful in a way that would be impossible to replace.  So, thanks for continuing to stop by the snapshot, despite the change in writer. The comments, suggestions, insights, and complaints are what made it worth it, even when it felt like a grind to get through writing it some Sunday mornings.

Okay, enough reflection and feelings, let’s talk about hockey and numbers.

Forwards

Player GP TOI SA% rel SA% GF% PDO
Winnik 16 158.5 55.8 3.0 87.5 108.0
Williams 78 1017.6 54.3 3.5 55.5 100.2
Ovechkin 76 1154.3 53.8 2.8 61.2 101.9
Kuznetsov 78 1090.7 53.4 2.2 58.5 101.4
Backstrom 73 1044.3 52.6 1.5 64.1 102.9
Latta 41 334.7 52.5 1.7 52.6 100.4
Burakovsky 75 885.3 52.4 0.5 51.3 99.9
Galiev 23 190.1 52.3 0.5 60.0 102.4
Oshie 76 1046.1 52.0 0.2 61.4 102.1
Beagle 54 632.0 50.7 -1.6 55.9 101.1
Richards 35 339.3 50.6 -1.3 53.3 100.7
Johansson 70 898.8 50.4 -1.6 56.7 101.2
Chimera 78 874.7 48.8 -4.0 50.0 100.0
Wilson 78 866.9 47.3 -5.8 53.1 101.5

Defense

Player GP TOI SA% rel SA% GF% PDO
Orlov 78 1173.7 54.4 3.6 58.2 101.8
Orpik 38 651.8 52.2 -0.6 53.2 99.8
Niskanen 78 1402.7 51.9 0.0 56.2 100.9
Schmidt 69 1114.7 51.5 0.4 56.2 101.1
Carlson 53 908.6 51.0 -1.5 54.8 100.4
Alzner 78 1347.6 50.5 -2.2 55.3 101.0
Chorney 54 647.6 50.3 -2.0 57.1 103.0

Observations

  • Given the Caps’ recent run of games, are you breathing any easier? Yeah, they’ve been shut out twice in their last 5 games and lost a third game in a shootout in that span but, while the results have been lacking, the process has been steadily improving. With the President’s trophy locked up, isn’t the process more important than the results for the remainder of the regular season?
  • The Caps have climbed back to 10th in the league in score-adjusted shot attempt percentage, sitting at 51.9 percent through 78 games. The 10-game, rolling shot attempt percentage shows the Caps’ recent improvement in process:
capsrolling10
  • Why the drop in results despite the improvement in process? The shooting percentage at 5v5 has plummeted, and the 700 posts the team has hit in the last week doesn’t even show up here, since a shot off the post doesn’t count as a shot on goal:
capsrolling102
  • As if it wasn’t easy enough to be overshadowed on a team with stars like Alex Ovechkin and Nick Backstrom, the emergence of Evgeny Kuznetsov this season has probably caused the continued emergence of Andre Burakovsky to go relatively unnoticed around the league. Burakovsky is second among all Caps forwards in 5v5 points per 60 but his numbers also hold up really well when compared to all forwards around the league. In 2015-16, 249 forwards have skated 750-plus 5v5 minutes. Among those 249 forwards, Burakovsky ranks 31st in goals per 60 and 46th in points per 60. And yes, Kuznetsov is the one who has emerged as a true star this season, but don’t forget Burakovsky is almost three years younger than his Russian center. Put your shades on, the future is blindingly bright for these two. (Side note: can we get Dre some regular PP time, even when the team is fully healthy?)
  • A number of people have commented to me recently that Kuznetsov needs to shoot the puck more. He certainly does pass up some prime chances sometimes. One in particular stands out from Saturday night against Arizona when he tried to bank home a pass of Justin Williams’ stick instead of ripping the puck on net from point blank range. But I think some context to this critique is needed. Kuznetsov is as dynamic and skilled passer as there is in the NHL. This is a case of needing to take the great with the bad. Yes, he overpasses sometimes and we’d all love to see him shoot more, but in the end his passing skills are a clear net-positive for the team, so I can accept his over-passing as part of his game. Not to mention he’s been shooting the puck more frequently as the season has gone on, as shown by this visualization from Corsica:
kuzy60
  • Did you know that, other than Ovechkin, no Caps forward has shot the puck more per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time than Stan Galiev? Galiev is probably running out of time to become an NHL regular, and the lack of points production may cost him a roster spot next season, but I think he’s acquitted himself pretty well in the limited playing time he’s had.
  • Marcus Johansson is above 50 percent in the shot attempt percentage column, which is important. But I don’t like seeing him ranked so low on the chart and I don’t like seeing his relative shot attempt percentage in the negatives. This isn’t a code red, this is just me saying I’d like to see more from him. Keeping him away from Jason Chimera and Tom Wilson, who should either be playing on separate lines or, if they are together, playing on the fourth line, would be a good way to help Johansson start tilting the ice more.
  • A few nuggets on Brooks Orpik:

  • The main issue with Orpik was always the term and cap hit on his contract. But, I’ve been critical of his play plenty of times, too. While the back years on the deal still terrify me, I’d be remiss not to point out that he’s been more effective than I thought he’d be in the first two years of his deal.
  • I’d imagine the returns of Orpik and John Carlson are factors in the recent climb in puck possession for Matt Niskanen and Karl Alzner. Via Corsica:
alznernisky
  • Meanwhile, Nate Schmidt, what’s going on, dude?
nate88

Glossary

  • GP. Games played.
  • TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5 close.
  • SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
  • rel SA%. The percentage more or less of the overall shot attempts the Caps see with the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench
  • GF%. Goal percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
  • PDO. A meaningless acronym. The sum of a player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may reflected in goal%.
  • All stats from War on Ice unless otherwise noted or linked to.