Photo by Amanda Bowen

David Johnson of Puckalytics and Hockey Analysis released a new feature over the weekend called Super WOWY. Super WOWY allows you to select up to 6 teammates and 6 opponents and see how the groups fare in head-to-head matchups dating back to 2008-09. For those of you who like to play armchair coach by considering different line combinations and matchups, you’ll love this new tool.

I’ve been noodling around with Super WOWY, specifically by looking at Caps’ line combinations for this season. While our admiration and respect for Head Coach Barry Trotz has been well documented here on RMNB, so too has been our bewilderment over some of his line combinations, though we acknowledge Trotz is in a no-win situation when he puts together his lines.

Here are the best four lines the Caps could possibly ice– based on a nifty new data set.

Note: I considered only the 12 healthy forwards currently on the Caps’ roster, so Michael Latta and Andre Burakovsky weren’t included.

First Line

Ovechkin – Backstrom – Brouwer

Putting Backstrom and Ovechkin together needs no more explanation than putting peanut butter and jelly together. It’s Lennon and McCartney. It’s Daltrey and Townshend. It’s Vedder and Gossard. It just works. 

Putting Brouwer on their wing might seem curious, seeing as they’ve skated together for less than hour this season and were outscored 4-3, but a closer look shows this trio had a PDO of just 92.6 (way below the league average of 100), largely due to Caps’ goalies stopping an unsustainably low 82.6 percent of shots while Ovi, Backstrom, and Brouwer were on the ice.

It’s a small sample, but the fact that this line has seen 59.4 percent of 5v5 shot attempts is compelling. It’s worth mentioning that the line had skated 243 minutes together before this season, with just 47.4 percent of shot attempts. But those were the Oates years, and maybe there’s something in Trotz’s system that causes this trio to click better than before.

Most players see success with Ovechkin and Backstrom, but Brouwer’s time with them this season has been especially encouraging. That said, putting Brouwer here is just as much about who he isn’t playing with as who he is. Fedor has written about the struggles of the Caps’ second line, which has included Brouwer for most of the season. Keeping Brouwer off of a line with Marcus Johansson and Evgeny Kuznetosv will help optimize other lines, which we’ll get into more below.

Second Line

Johansson – Fehr – Glencross

* Numbers reflect Johansson and Fehr together. Glencross not included.

While putting Brouwer on the first line 1 was, in part, to maximize the second line, Fehr is put at center here for a similar reason. I’ve written about how great Johansson and Burakovsky are together, but Burakovsky is unfortunately in Hershey at the moment.

Johansson has spent a lot of the season centered by Kuznetsov. It hasn’t worked. Both players see more shot attempts go the other way when they skate together. Fehr and Johansson have underwhelming career possession numbers together (46.8 percent of shot attempts in 191 minutes), but much of that was before Fehr transitioned to center and/or under coaches who stifled the Caps’ possession. This season, the two have been above 50-percent possession, all while receiving zone starts tougher than what they’d likely see if placed on the second line together.

Glencross is on this line by default. He hasn’t been with the team long enough to know where he fits best. His placement here is about maximizing the other lines, while also putting him in a role that could help him succeed.

Third Line

Laich – Kuznetsov – Ward

Given Kuznetsov’s lack of chemistry with Johansson and Brouwer, he finds himself outside of the top six. But this is also about putting Kuznetosv in a position to succeed without burying him on the fourth line (or in the press box). Of the 21 skaters Kuznetsov has skated 10-plus minutes with this season, the Caps see the highest percent of shot attempts when he’s on the ice with Joel Ward (58.3 percent in 57 minutes). This is the second highest total for Ward among the 17 skaters he’s skated 35-plus minutes with this season. (Burakovsky is the only player who improves Ward’s possession more than Kuznetsov– Sigh.)

Kuznetsov is also above 50-percent shot attempts when skating with Laich this season.

These three players haven’t skated as a trio much this season– just 15 minutes. But the results in the tiny sample are encouraging. The fact that Kuznetsov has good underlying numbers with both of these wingers this season makes this line worth a longer look.

Fourth Line

Chimera – Beagle – Wilson

A fourth line that owns 57.7 percent of shot attempts in over 80 minutes together is a fourth line worth keeping together. I’ve called for Wilson to get top-nine minutes, but the top-nine doesn’t have a gaping hole under this configuration. And if he can play on a line that sees Beagle and Chimera above 50-percent possession, he’s doing his part for this team.

Fangraphs has an article about how some of Dan Duquette’s success with the Orioles can be attributed to the fact that he’s “avoided the awful.” That’s relevant here. This line is about the Caps avoiding an awful, black-hole possession, fourth line

Your turn: What lines do you want? Head over to Puckalytics and mess around with the Super WOWY tool and leave your findings in the comments. If you have any questions about how to use the site, leave those too.