Week 9 Snapshot: Finally Getting Paid

Photo: Patrick McDermott

We’re going streaking! The Caps have won four of their last five games and taken points from all of them. Wins finally seem to be catching to the team’s generally good underlying play. Not every week is going to be smooth sailing like this one, but I think the hockey we saw over the last seven days is a reliable indication of what this team is: pretty good.

It’s tempting to chalk the recent success up to Green’s return, Chimera’s benching, or Backstrom’s heroics. Those are certainly big (and loud) factors, but I kind of see it as the whole team finally getting rewarded for playing well. If only the team had got these results in the season’s opening weeks, they might still be playing like they did in October.

Previous snapshots: week 1, week 2, week 3, week 4, week 5, skip week, week 7, week 8

Let’s do the numbers. These are current as of way after noon on Sunday, December 14th. The sample is restricted to 5v5 hockey when the score is within one goal. There’s a glossary at bottom with an explanatory video.

Forwards

Defense

Observations

• Big picture: the Caps take 52 percent of the shot attempts (once you adjust for score), which makes them about the twelfth best team in the league during 5v5. With a real good power play and a not-terrible-anymore penalty kill, they’re probably gonna make the playoffs. If they make some tweaks and some trades, they might able to improve that possession by a point or two and become a real contender.
• Current Caps mumps status: 0-percent mumps. The disease is now in the Metro. Stay vigilant, Caps organization, and don’t be the hot mess that Pittsburgh is.
• Mike Green is back, and he is good. It’s just inhuman that he’s seeing 58.2 percent of shot attempts (SA%) go in his team’s favor inside a 4-hour sample. Whatever team he plays for next season is gonna be real glad to have him.
• With Dmitry Orlov‘s recovery now wayyyyy behind schedule (much like this snapshot), I guess Nate Schmidt is sticking around. He still seems to be a pretty good player even when he’s not skating with Green (52.4 percent possession), so I’m pretty happy with him. The Caps have long done well with cheap young defensemen, and it looks like the trend continues with Schmidt.
• Michael Latta‘s possession is dropping, which we sort of knew it would as the sample matured. Though I must admit I’m curious if the drop had anything to do with having Jason Chimera on his wing this week. Does that make me a jerk?
• Jason Chimera earned his scratch, but was it with that very bad penalty or generally underwhelming play? Trotz seemed to say it was a singular mistake on Chimera’s part that earned him a seat, but the pattern of his play has been poor all season. Once Chimera returns, and I’m confident he will, he’ll probably continue to get outshot by a 53:47 ratio. That’s a bummer.
• Another easy target of the numbers crowd is Jay Beagle, though some perspective might be helpful. If Beagle were getting 50.2-percent possession last season, I’d be singing his praises as one of the better players on the team. The rising tide of the Capitals in general only makes Beagle look less great by comparison. In absolutes, he’s fine. Calibrating criticism is a delicate thing, even more so since that criticism evolves with the data. I’m sometimes sour about how people characterize my taeks (Orpik stuff in particular), so I wanna be super clear here that what I’m putting against Beagle is pretty mildness. Just keep him off the top line, please.
• Okay, now for my Brooks Orpik taek: He’s not that bad! His numbers have been somewhat stable since the back half of November. I’ve looked for any changes in his deployment (i.e. playing less against top lines), but I don’t see anything. The contract is still a crime against humanity and Orpik should be used more sparingly and prudently, but what he is doing right now is valuable to the team. There, I said it. I feel dirty.
• Homework assignment for you. Look at Eric Fehr‘s WOWY (with you, without you) numbers. Tell me what you think.
• What’s the deal with Karl Alzner and Matt Niskanen, who are now underwater in shot attempts and goals? Chemistry is important, but it’s not all-important. Trotz has kept his defensive lineup the same all season. It’s been great for stat-keeping, but maybe it’s time for a shake-up? I dunno.
• Andre Burakovsky‘s sample grew by 4 minutes this week. Weeee!

Glossary

• 5v5 Within 1. Our sample. The portions of games when each team has five skaters and the score is within one goal.
• GP. Games played.
• TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5 close.
• SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice. Also known as Fenwick. Above 50 percent is good.
• Goal%. Goal percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice. Above 50 percent is good.
• PDO. A meaningless acronym. The sum of a player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may reflected in goal%.
• ZS%. Offensive zone start percentage. Excluding neutral-zone starts, the share of shifts that the player starts in the offensive zone, nearer to the opponent’s net.

Thanks to War On Ice for the stats.