Week 8 Snapshot: The Sound of Settling

Wins are paramount. In the end, this sport is measured in wins. Goals scored or prevented are the component parts of wins, and shot attempts generated or prevented are the component parts of goals. So when the Capitals got two important divisional wins this week– both in regulation– I reminded myself that those Ws are ultimately more important than the stuff happening under the surface.

That under the surface stuff, as we’ve been documenting, has been degrading since the end of October. But if this is the basement for the team, it ain’t so bad. The Capitals could presumably get a lot of wins and make the playoffs based on their current performance (plus a little more luck). They’re not gonna win a Cup, and we’ll all know deep down that they’re capable of more, but maybe we should just be grateful for what we’ve got. At least they’re not the Skins.

Previous snapshots: week 1, week 2, week 3, week 4, week 5, skip week, week 7

Let’s do the numbers. These are current as of way after noon on Sunday, December 7th. The sample is restricted to 5v5 hockey when the score is within one goal. There’s a glossary at bottom with an explanatory video.

Forwards

Defense

Observations

• Welcome to the snapshot, Brooks Laich. Laich’s possession (55.8 SA%) is pretty good inside out sample. When Laich’s with Eric Fehr, which seems to be a thing lately, he’s rocking a 57.1% shot-attempt percentage. Bacon bits and synergy in the middle six. I like it. Stay healthy.
• I spent a few weeks saying Jason Chimera should be demoted, then he got demoted, then he got two assists and played pretty well. I suck. Chimmer even had 5 shots on goal in Carolina. Maybe it’s a good fit for him, maybe I’m wrong, maybe hockey is noisy, I dunno. I really do like Chimera though– even if he’s getting out-possessed massively during 5v5.
• Tom Wilson’s snapshot stats are pretty okay, and it’s not like he’s ruining the top line. After a week of recording 27 penalty minutes, he quieted down a bunch this week. “If Tom Wilson starts to play like someone else,” Barry Trotz said, “then he won’t be on the first line.” I don’t know if coach meant getting fewer PIMs in general or specifically fighting, but he’s probably unwise on both fronts. Players who begin their career with the penalty volume that Wilson has have rarely turned into great players (that Crosby guy might be an exception, though it’s not like he was dropping gloves in his rookie year). Unless Wilson is a truly sui generis power/fighting forward, and I doubt he is, he’s gonna be torn in two.
• I’m worried about Alex Ovechkin‘s on-ice shooting percentage (and as a result, his PDO). Over the last two seasons, the Caps have shot 6.16 percent inside our sample. In the two seasons before that, it was 9.38. Shooting percentages are considered mostly luck and highly volatile. I hope so, because if there is something systemic going on that is hindering the Caps’ scoring with Ovi during 5v5, it’s gonna be hard to fix without drastic moves.
• And that’s kind of key to the Capitals doldrums. The games seem kind of boring lately because the first line is missing the fireworks. Maybe stuff isn’t as broken as we think, and we’re just reacting emotionally to the statistical noise that is suppressing scoring on the top line alone. Just a thought.
• I still think the Brooks Orpik contract is a poo smoothie, and he was wretched on the penalty kill this week, but Orpik’s 5v5 play seems to have stabilized. The Caps have been neither outshot nor outscored while Orpik is on the ice inside our sample. If his rock bottom is 51.7 percent of the shot attempts, I’m gonna eat some crow and like it.
• Meanwhile, Matt Niskanen and Karl Alzner cling desperately to the right side of 50 percent. I looked into it, and it doesn’t look like Trotz has changed deployments. I’m not really sure what’s going on, except I know I’m not really in love with Alzner’s checking and skating.
• Joel Ward played a handful of games on the top line this season, which has definitely colored the stat I’m about to share, so keep that in mind. Joel Ward and Jason Chimera have a 45.5 shot attempt percentage when playing together during 5v5. Take Chimera away and Joel Ward gets 63.2 percent. I’m starting to think maybe they’re not even twins at all.
• You guys think Troy Brouwer can make it another week with a positive shot-attempt differential (SA%)? Me neither.
• A lot has been made, including by me, about how the Capitals play differently (read: worse) when they have the lead. Now, all teams do this (though the Caps do it more) and the team trying to come back drives a lot of it, but I suspect there is something special going for the Caps, and it’s mostly happening on the second line. Instead of possession dropping ~5 percent vs tied (which is the case with the top line) or not at all (like the third line), the Caps’ second line drops fifteen percent in shot-attempt percentage. Andre Burakovsky‘s individual shot attempts drop 70 percent when leading compared to tied. Are those guys in particular being coached to play differently when the Caps are leading? Seems like it to me.

Glossary

• 5v5 Within 1. Our sample. The portions of games when each team has five skaters and the score is within one goal.
• GP. Games played.
• TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5 close.
• SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice. Also known as Fenwick. Above 50 percent is good.
• Goal%. Goal percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice. Above 50 percent is good.
• PDO. A meaningless acronym. The sum of a player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may reflected in goal%.
• ZS%. Offensive zone start percentage. Excluding neutral-zone starts, the share of shifts that the player starts in the offensive zone, nearer to the opponent’s net.

Thanks to War On Ice for the stats.