Evgeny Kuznetsov is among the players for whom Barry Trotz has struggled to find a consistent spot in the line-up. (Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty)
To break out of their slump, the Capitals needed offensive contribution from their second line. Marcus Johansson and Andre Burakovsky scored four points each in the last three games, all Caps wins. Before that, when the Capitals struggled to get points, their third line featuring Joel Ward and Jason Chimera shone. Right now, the Caps have an eight-plus goal-scorer on each of their top three lines in Alex Ovechkin, Johansson, and Ward.
Coach Barry Trotz has found three successful pairs so far: Ovechkin-Backstrom, Johansson-Brouwer, Chimera-Ward. Andre Burakovsky seems to have secured second-line center position for now, which leaves two main vacancies in top nine: top-line right wing and third-line center.
Assembling the Lines
Trotz has emphasized that he wants all of his four lines to contribute. “I’m trying to build four lines,” Trotz told Washington Post’s Alex Prewitt. “As the season wears on, you’re going to need to be a four-line team.”
Six players that are looking for a spot on one of five remaining forward positions: Eric Fehr, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Tom Wilson, Brooks Laich, Michael Latta, and Jay Beagle. All of them have either spent significant time sidelined with injuries or have bounced around the line-up.
- Eric Fehr would be my primary option for top line right wing. While the sample size is relatively small, Alex Ovechkin has performed better with Eric Fehr than with Ward and Wilson in both goals and shot attempts (66.7 percent goals went Caps’ way with Ovi and Fehr on the ice as well as 60.2 percent of shot attempts).
- Michael Latta or Jay Beagle would be best options to center the checking line with Ward and Chimera. Trotz mentioned that he wants a player who can cycle the puck successfully to play with his best grinders. Speaking of Evgeny Kuznetsov, Trotz said: “Kuzy’s more a pretty good distributor of the puck. He’s not I wouldn’t say a high cycle guy. He’s not a guy that [Joel Ward] and [Jason Chimera] play with a lot, because that’s not really his game.” Both Latta and Beagle possess these qualities and can take important draws against tough match-ups. However, Ward and Chimera have not played a lot with those centers. So far, Trotz has chosen Andre Burakovsky, Eric Fehr, and Brooks Laich to pivot the twins, so there’s little empirical evidence of Trotz’s hypothesis. So far this year, Latta has generally played better than Beagle, so he’s a logical choice to center the checking line.
- Kuznetsov seems to be Trotz’ choice for a fourth-line center. Talking to Mike Vogel of Monumental Network, Caps GM Brian MacLellan said he thinks Wilson is an “ideal linemate” for Kuznetsov and that his ability to create space will help Kuznetsov generate offense. MacLellan also said that he wants a finisher to play with Kuznetsov, so it seems like his best bet is that a three-time 20-goal scorer Brooks Laich will finally get healthy. If it doesn’t happen, MacLellan may have to look at the trade market to get the left winger he wants.
So, the lines would look like:
Ovechkin – Backstrom – Fehr
Johansson – Burakovsky – Brouwer
Chimera – Latta – Ward
Laich – Kuznetsov – Wilson
Managing Ice Time
Here’s a look at even-strength time distribution for the Caps three top-nine pairs. Those have remained intact since November 4th’s game against the Flames, a sample of four games. The numbers in columns two through five are the average TOI for each duo as a percentage of total even-strength TOI for games. So Ovechkin/Backstrom played 29.27 percent of even-strength ice time against Calgary for example. The last three columns are a reference to ES/PP/SH situation in those games.
- As you can see, the amount of time Trotz gives to each of his lines fluctuates dramatically. For example, Caps’ first line may take up to 10-15% more of team’s ES TOI (which means seven-eight minutes difference in a regular game) if Caps don’t get enough power plays.
- The second duo has remained consistent in 21-28 percent range even though both Brouwer and Johansson play on the Caps top PP unit. Seeing how they produce, playing a quarter of team’s ES TOI seems to be a comfort zone for them.
- Third line’s TOI goes up when Trotz wants to limit minutes of his fourth line or the Caps get a lot of power plays, opening some minutes that usually go to the first line.
- These numbers show there’s flexibility to provide ice time to the fourth line, which, in fact, was done in the last game of the Caps’ losing skid against Calgary. If Trotz keeps giving the first line around 30 percent of even-strength TOI and both second and third receive 22-25 percent each, it would leave 20-25 percent for the fourth line, which would be more than ten minutes on most nights.
The difference of 5 percent of ES TOI is about 2-3 minutes. The Caps’ bottom three lines would share that ice time almost equally, giving an opportunity for each player to shine and earn a little more ice time when he’s hot. Such a setup would allow Trotz to use all of his players without relying too much on hot streaks and abnormal shooting percentages.
