Capitals can’t climb out of early hole and get conned by poor officiating: numbers for the morning after

Numbers For The Morning After, with Chris Cerullo
📸 : RMNB

The Washington Capitals dropped a game much closer than the final score would indicate on Sunday afternoon. After battling in a one-goal game deep into the third period, some refereeing hijinks and an empty-net goal turned the contest into a 5-1 win for the Minnesota Wild.

Really frustrating to see that one slip away because the Capitals played well.

  • Outside of a super shaky start, where they really should have been down only one goal, the Capitals recovered well on a five-on-five basis. In the second and third periods combined, they were up 42-28 in shot attempts, 19-13 in shots on goal, 21-10 in scoring chances, 8-4 in high-danger chances, and 2.27-1.23 in expected goals. I really think they would have found a way to tie it up in the dying moments of regulation, but unfortunately a ref with just 38 prior games of experience ripped that chance away with an utterly bogus call. Have you no shame, Zach Bogosian?
  • Goaltending also played a big role in the result, as Logan Thompson just didn’t have his best stuff and Jesper Wallstedt was incredible at the other end. According to MoneyPuck, Thompson allowed 1.08 more goals than expected, and Wallstedt saved 2.29 more goals than expected. LT really needed to stop that weak-sauce Quinn Hughes goal in the first period.
  • Special teams are becoming an issue again. The power play went 0-for-1, and they are now 22nd in the NHL at a 17.6 percent effectiveness rate. The penalty kill allowed two goals on five Minnesota opportunities, now ranking 16th in the league with a 77.3 percent kill rate. Not close to good enough for a team that wants to contend.

  • Justin Sourdif scored the lone Capitals goal in the loss and had a pretty active game overall. Sourdif played 13:04 of ice time and recorded two shots on goal, four shot attempts, two individual scoring chances, two individual high-danger chances, three hits, and one shot block.
  • Ilya Protas only played 8:26 of ice time, the lowest single-game mark of his young career. Protas was stapled to the bench for most of the second and third periods, only taking six total shifts after the first intermission.
  • I feel like it was quite obvious just from watching with my eyes that Cole Hutson was the best player on the ice for either team, and oh boy, the numbers sure back that up. With Hutson on the ice during his 18:48 of five-on-five ice time, the Capitals finished the game up 38-9 in shot attempts, 16-4 in shots on goal, 23-2 in scoring chances, 8-0 in high-danger chances, and 2.33-0.39 in expected goals. I literally don’t remember the last time a Caps defender had a game that statistically dominant. He seems to have found instant tremendous chemistry with Jack St. Ivany, and I hope Spencer Carbery continues to give Hutson more and more responsibility. When he’s on, he’s a difference maker from the backend that few teams have in the NHL. This kid turned 20 like a handful of months ago. Holy schmoley.

Numbers thanks to Hockey-Reference, NaturalStatTrick, and HockeyStatCards.

RMNB is not associated with the Washington Capitals; Monumental Sports, the NHLPA, the NHL, or its properties. Not even a little bit.

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