Goalie Logan Thompson saved 32 of 33 shots on Saturday night to help the Washington Capitals to an unlikely win over the Nashville Predators, in which the Caps managed just 16 shots on goal. For Thompson, 27, it was just another night in what’s becoming an elite season. With Charlie Lindgren on injured reserve after a head injury, Thompson will have to pick up the slack. He’s used to it.
“There was a while there [in Vegas] that I had to take on a majority of the workload,” Thompson said after the game on Saturday, referring to Adin Hill’s recurring lower body injuries last season.
After collision in crease, Charlie Lindgren leaves game against Canadiens with upper-body injury
“I think I’ve been in good shape relatively all year, prepared for worst-case scenario. Obviously I wish [Charlie Lindgren] was here, but he’ll be back hopefully soon. For now I’m just gonna keep being ready and prepared whenever [Spencer Carbery] wants me to go.”
When he is going, Thompson is – by at least one measure – the best goalie in the league. According to Moneypuck, here are the top ten goalies based on goals saved above average, or GSAx. This number calculates how many goals a league-average goalie would allow based on the shots they face, compared to the actual goals that get past him.
| Goalie | Games | GSAx | GSAx60 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hellebuyck | 34 | 27.0 | 0.79 |
| Thompson | 23 | 19.8 | 0.87 |
| Blackwood | 30 | 15.5 | 0.56 |
| Dostal | 25 | 15.0 | 0.62 |
| Vejmelka | 26 | 14.1 | 0.56 |
| Gustavsson | 29 | 13.9 | 0.49 |
| Shesterkin | 29 | 12.9 | 0.48 |
| Markstrom | 32 | 12.5 | 0.39 |
| Gibson | 17 | 11.0 | 0.69 |
| Woll | 21 | 10.4 | 0.51 |
As of Sunday, Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck leads the league in total goals saved and has rightfully earned Vezina and even Hart Trophy buzz, but he’s also played much more than Thompson: 11 games and 353 more shots. When measured by rate, GSAx60 in the table above, Thompson actually passes Hellebuyck.
If Thompson takes the lion’s share of starts while Lindgren is out and Hershey call-up Hunter Shepard backs him up, we could see those totals narrow. And if Thompson plays anything like he has, he’ll keep stealing wins.
In seven of his appearances, Washington’s positive goal difference was smaller than the number of goals Thompson saved above expected. Those wins are practically attributable to him. He’s really had only two stinkers: a wild night at both ends of the ice against the Devils and one with a disastrous second period against the Islanders. The Caps won both those games, helping Thompson’s 18-2-3 record.
Thompson has surpassed his partner, Charlie Lindgen, and he’s done so despite a noticeably tougher workload.
Below, from HockeyViz, are heatmaps showing the location of opponent shots against each goalie. The Caps’ net is at the bottom of each diagram, so red blobs close to that net mean more dangerous chances for opponents, and blue blobs mean teams shoot less from those locations.
At left, Thompson faces harder-than-league-average shots, especially from danger-close and from up top near the blue line. At right, Lindgren faces fewer shots overall and from less dangerous spots. That’s important context to consider when looking at their all-situation save percentages: .919 for Thompson and .900 flat for Lindgren. Back on Moneypuck’s ranking, out of 62 goalies who’ve played at least ten games, Lindgren ranks 32nd: right in the middle, saving 0.1 goals better than expected. Room-temperature goaltending.
Head coach Spencer Carbery had been carefully splitting starts between Thompson and Lindgren through the first half of the season. There was already growing daylight in the performance of the two goalies, and injury has finally forced his hand. He’ll be relying Thompson a lot going forward.
“I like that we don’t have the back-to-backs,” Carbery said. “So it’ll be a good opportunity for him to play a bunch of games.
The Capitals don’t have back-to-back games until the end of February, after the Four Nations Face-off break.
“And now, part of the thing with Logan – he’s had a great year to this point and essentially it’s been a flip, right? Every game. So a ‘starter’ in this league, you want to show that you can play, what would you say now, 50, 55 [games].
“He’s already proven what he’s proven thus far this year, but now here’s a chance to be able to do it in a ‘starter’s role,’ being able to play game, game, game, and back that up night after night, which I’m looking forward to seeing.”
At this point, LT is The Guy. Up to him where we go from here.
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