With two games remaining, the Washington Capitals have an opportunity to do something huge this season. The team can return to the playoffs under rookie head coach Spencer Carbery after floundering down the stretch last year under Peter Laviolette. The opportunity comes despite the team selling at the deadline, losing several key veterans to injury, integrating several young players, and installing a new system.
The Capitals control their own destiny as they head into their home-and-away back-to-back against the Boston Bruins on Monday and the Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday. In short: Two wins, they’re in. But it won’t be easy.
Boston is fighting for the Atlantic Division title (and potentially the Eastern Conference’s first seed) while Philadelphia, on two days rest, is playing for their season.
The Capitals currently sit in a three-way tie for the second and final wild card spot in the East (87 points), but lead due to the regulation wins tiebreaker, which could decide the race. Each competing team has two games left in the season except for the Flyers, who play Washington in their final game.
Regulation wins (tiebreaker)
Capitals, 30
Red Wings, 27
Flyers, 30
Penguins, 31
The Red Wings are toast if they finish the season tied with any of the three teams competing for the wild card spot. Similarly, if the Capitals win in regulation tonight against Boston, the Flyers will need a regulation win against Washington on Tuesday to have any chance of winning another tiebreaker against them, meaning they could pull their goaltender if the game is tied coming to the final horn.
Playoff Odds as of Monday via Money Puck
Red Wings, 33.8 percent
Capitals, 29.4 percent
Penguins, 23.7 percent
Flyers, 18 percent
The Red Wings have the best odds to make the postseason due to their strength of schedule — a home and away back-to-back against the Montreal Canadiens on Monday and Tuesday. The Canadiens are the second-worst team in the Eastern Conference with 74 standings points. The Penguins play the Nashville Predators at home on Monday before taking on the New York Islanders at UBS Arena on Wednesday.
The Capitals could also end up in the M3 playoff spot — the third and final guaranteed playoff spot in the Metropolitan Division — though it’s unlikely. If they are competing with the Islanders (90 standings points) only for that spot, they would need to go 1-0-1 (3 points) or win out (4 points) and the Isles would need to go 0-1-1 or 0-2-0. New York has just 27 regulation wins this season, meaning the Capitals would take the first tiebreaker if they end up with the same amount of standings points.
The Islanders play the New Jersey Devils on Monday and will clinch a playoff spot with a win. They then conclude their season on Wednesday against the Penguins.
The @NYIslanders have scenarios Monday to secure both a #StanleyCup Playoffs spot and the No. 3 seed in the Metropolitan Division. The simplest is to win their game against the Devils (7 p.m. ET on MSGSN, MSGSN2).#NHLStats: https://t.co/X2F5cuM56t pic.twitter.com/LjNIjoHaUB
— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) April 15, 2024
Pittsburgh could also end up in the M3 spot if they win both of their final games and the Islanders lose out because Pittsburgh has already clinched the regulation wins tiebreaker over them.
So once again, tonight is the biggest game of the season for the Capitals until tomorrow night. The Capitals cannot clinch a playoff spot or be eliminated tonight with a loss, meaning their playoff fate will be decided, at the earliest, on Tuesday night.
Strap in, folks.
