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Both suddenly and inevitably, the Capitals lost their fifth game in a row on Friday night, but they’re not alone in their misery. Their competition for a playoff spot – Detroit and Philadelphia – lost as well. No one wants to play in the loffs.
Here are the standings:
The rankings remain the same, with the Caps outside the cutoff, behind the Flyers by a single point with more runway left in the schedule. The big winner last night didn’t play at all: the Pittsburgh Penguins, who could leapfrog everyone and take the second wild-card spot with a win over the Tampa Bay Lightning this afternoon.
One of the best pieces of advice I could give a hockey team is don’t lose five games in a row. But if you’re going to do that, it’s good to have company. Here’s how the teams in question have performed lately.
| Team | Record Since March 27 |
|---|---|
| Capitals | 0-4-1 |
| Flyers | 0-3-1 |
| Red Wings | 1-2-1 |
| Islanders | 4-1-0 |
| Penguins | 4-0-1 |
The teams who were behind have been winning; the teams who were ahead have been losing. The result: a time of contempt.
Let us now ask the models about the Capitals:
| Source | % |
|---|---|
| HockeyViz | 37 |
| Moneypuck | 33 |
| The Athletic | 31 |
Despite a victory that cost them about ten percentage points, the losses by their competitors improved their chances by almost as much, so the overall drop was just a couple points. This playoff race is ridiculous.
Unless you have matinee tickets to see The First Omen, I recommend watching this Pens-Bolts game. And tonight the Islanders will host the recently very good Predators. The Caps could improve or decline almost nine percentage points as a result of those games. We should get used to that: Washington’s fortunes sitting more in the hands of others.
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You have read another exciting episode of Loffs Watch.
