I’ll give credit to Brian MacLellan for this: the guy knows how to make a big splash in the summertime. Trading for center Pierre-Luc Dubois while clearing goalie Darcy Kuemper from the ledger is another GMBM classic. It solves one problem – overpaying Kuemper for what would be backup-goalie services – and solves another one – the recent disappearance of all his guys who play center.
Washington’s strength at center has been devastated by the losses of Kuznetsov and Backstrom. And while Dylan Strome had excellent boxcar and underlying statistics last season, he never seemed to be an ideal partner for Alex Ovechkin, at least not on the level of Kuznetsov and Backstrom at their peaks. And though Connor McMichael has returned to center after time at wing under Laviolette, it’s not yet apparent that he can perform like a top-sixer.
So the Capitals absolutely had to pick up a center before October. Non-negotiable. It is was the single biggest item on their offseason todo list.
Dubois is a fascinating choice. He was pretty bad in Los Angeles last season, earning just 40 points in a full 82-game season. (That would have ranked him fourth on the Capitals, ahead of Wilson and behind Carlson.) According to HockeyViz, he’s been in decline since soaring with the Jets in Winnipeg a couple seasons ago.
That drop-off included diminished individual scoring and play-driving, but his ability to set up teammates sustained. To me, that’s the critical detail about this player and the only thing I care about going into 2024-25: can he help Alex Ovechkin score?
Below are the All Three Zones player cards for Pierre-Luc Dubois. Corey Sznajder’s player-tracking project uses proprietary, manually recorded data to understand how well players perform at specific skills. The bars below show how much better than average a player performs (if the bar is blue) or how much worse (in orange). I’ve included the last two seasons. You can select the image to see it at a larger size.
 |
 |
I want to draw your attention to the red boxes, added by me, which show offensive stats: passing, offense type, and zone entries. What jumps out at me first is Dubois’ talent for getting the puck into the offensive zone with control – he’s excelled at that in both seasons. That could be an interesting combination for Alex Ovechkin, who doesn’t have much mobility at this point in his career. If PLD could make Ovechkin more dangerous on the rush, that would be wonderful.
Second and probably more important is passing. In the past, Ovechkin benefitted from the elite high-danger passing of Evgeny Kuznetsov, who had a unique and persistent skill for increasing his team’s shot danger in ways models weren’t good at measuring. Dubois does not come close to elite territory in high-danger assists, but he’s demonstrated above-average aptitude for passing from the center lane. Passes from PLD accounted for about half of Alex Laferriere’s goals last season – what I’d call in esports a hard carry. If Dubois were to play with Ovechkin, he’d have a much, much, much more talented finisher on his flank. Could that generate five extra goals? More?
That’s MacLellan’s wager here. Dubois is a distressed asset, coming off a disappointing season and massively overpaid ($8.5 million) for too long a term (through 2031). But with so many high-dollar players on long-term injured reserve, the Caps are well positioned to absorb Dubois’ salary. So there’s how you can excuse the deal. But if Dubois can actually help Ovechkin on his journey to the goal record, that’s the real upside.
The Caps had failed to give their star player the support he needs over the last couple seasons. Have they finally done right by him? Let’s find out.
