Coming at you with a sleek new Loffs Watch. Protect your neck; Loffs Watch is feeling froggy this Friday.
Everything went wrong. The Capitals lost in regulation. The Islanders won. The Flyers won. Pittsburgh beat Detroit, but it went past regulation so Detroit got a point anyway. That was precisely the worst-case scenario we discussed yesterday, and maybe we shouldn’t have. Maybe we made this happen. Klaatu Barada … Necktie? Nectar? Nickel?
Now, grotesquely, the standings loom before us.
The Penguins now own the second wild-card spot. The Caps are tied with the Wings and the Flyers, but the Caps have tiebreakers over both: fewer games played (79 to 80) than the Flyers and more regulation wins (29 to 27) than the Red Wings.
It’s tighter than it’s ever been, but it’s worse than it looks. Checking in with the models:
| Source | % |
|---|---|
| HockeyViz | 21 |
| Moneypuck | 19 |
| The Athletic | – |
One-in-five chance. How do you feel about that? I’ve engineered a scientific simulation that may help you calibrate your feelings.
gg go next. If nothing else, I hope Loffs Watch has grown you more comfortable with table-top role-playing dice.
Now, let’s do something new and look at the remaining schedule.
| Team | % | Remaining |
|---|---|---|
| Islanders | 92 | NYR, NJD, PIT |
| Penguins | 62 | BOS, NSH, NYI |
| Capitals | 21 | TBL, BOS, PHI |
| Red Wings | 17 | TOR, MTL, MTL |
| Flyers | 8 | NJD, WSH |
Those percentages are from hockeyviz.
Two tough opponents for Washington in the Lightning and Bruins, then a Flyers team that will either still be playing for the loffs or at least playing spoiler. The Wings have a weird back-to-back with the Canadiens to wrap things up, which is pretty soft for them. And the Penguins and Islanders, both above the Capitals, play one another in the finale and you just frigging know they’ll go to overtime to setup a Parcheesi-style blockade in the standings.
The Caps are down, but they’re not out entirely. Just as forces aligned to humiliate them on Thursday night, so too could they lift DC’s chances in this final stretch. My suspicion is that it’ll all come down to game 82. Let me know how it goes. 🇨🇺
Loffs Watch Theme Song of the Day
I’ll be gone, but you’ll find more playoffs watching right here in coming days.
This has been Loffs Watch. Thank you for supporting Loffs Watch. Loffs Watch, signing off.
