Ooh baby, it’s Loffs Watch! Catch the fever.
Technically, tonight’s game in Buffalo is not the biggest of the season. We’ve used that title two times so far (for Pittsburgh and Detroit), and we need to stop going to the well so often. Instead of a 40-point swing (shudder for the word choice), tonight’s game is a measly 35-ish points according to HockeyViz. 35 < 40, but every game from here on out is going to be impactful, and each more than the last.
Washington isn’t alone in that situation, but first we need to look at the standings, which are unchanged from yesterday.
Last night was a weirdly western-teams-only affair, saving all the action for tonight. Let’s look at four games that matter.
Washington at Buffalo
The Caps are underdogs (42.5 percent) according to Moneypuck. They’ve split their season series, with the Caps getting blown out in one game and winning in overtime in the other. So basically the Caps’ season in miniature. Loffs Watch wants the Caps to win this game, preferably in regulation. Obvi.
Philadelphia at NY Rangers
You are rooting for the Rangers tonight. Bet that feels normal for you. It’ll be only a minor setback if the Flyers win, even in regulation, as they’re now in the single digits of likelihood to make the postseason. Moneypuck says they’re major underdogs with a 34.3 percent chance of winning. The lights are dimming for them.
Detroit at Pittsburgh
The meteor game. We’re mostly hoping for this game to be decided in regulation, preferably by the Red Wings, who are marginal underdogs (45.8 percent). The Caps’ chances could take a six percentage-point drop if Pittsburgh wins in overtime or the shootout, so that’s probably what will happen.
Montreal at NY Islanders
Allons-y, les habitants! You know me, massive Montreal maniac caterwauling for the Canadiens consistently since… well, sometime after 2010 at least, god dammit. The Habs are not favored (38.4 percent), but a regulation win by them would help the Caps by another six percentage points.
Models:
| Source | % |
|---|---|
| HockeyViz | 47 |
| Moneypuck | 43 |
| The Athletic | 42 |
So, worst-case scenario would mean the Caps dropping to the mid-teens, probably staring at their damn phones all day on the Tick Tocks. If the stars align and the moon is in the eighth house of Aquarius, then the Caps could sit in the 70s tomorrow, which will be the season finale of Loffs Watch.
Loffs Watch Theme Song of the Day
Loffs Watch is watching you. Obey, consume, marry and reproduce.
