Home / News / Tom Wilson promoted to top line after Caps lose four of last five games

Tom Wilson promoted to top line after Caps lose four of last five games

By Ian Oland

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October 19, 2017 12:38 pm

Heading into this weekend’s back-to-back games against Detroit and Florida, the Capitals will have new forward lines. Human wrecking ball Tom Wilson will bring his man beef to the first line while Andre Burakovsky is being dropped out of the top six.

The new trios debuted Thursday morning at practice.

Burakovsky will skate on the third line with Lars Eller. Other changes include Alex Chiasson jumping back into the lineup on the fourth line while Nathan Walker appears to be the extra forward. Tyler Graovac, who suffered an upper-body injury Tuesday, is “week-to-week.”

#TopLineTom has produced good underling numbers when moving up in the past.

With the caveat that the below numbers aren’t totally current and they’re spent with Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin, Wilson has proven to be a productive player when given a big opportunity.

Via RMNB’s Pat Holden from February:

Over the last four seasons, Backstrom and Ovechkin have skated together for over 100 minutes of 5-on-5 hockey with seven different teammates. They are, in order, Oshie, Johansson, Wilson, Burakovsky, Beagle, Williams and ……. Martin Erat.

When looking at how these seven trios have performed, Wilson’s time on the top line looks solid. Here’s how the current top trio has fared and how they rank among these seven different combos:

Stat Number (rank)
Shot attempt percentage 54.8 (3rd)
Scoring chance percentage 52.9 (4th)
Expected goals for percentage 59.1 (1st)
Goals for percentage 54.4 (3rd)

The Caps’ latest top line ranks in the top four in all of these key categories and leads the way in one: expected goals for percentage.

So, there’s reason to believe that Wilson on the top line could work out for the Caps.

Wilson spoke about his promotion after practice.

“Those guys are top-tier players,” Wilson said. “We were joking around… I’ll play upside down, I’ll play goalie if I’m playing with those guys. They’re two really good players and they make the third guy on that line a lot better. I’m going to give them their room and create space for them and try and get open. I love playing with Nicky. This is my first time playing with Osh.”

Meanwhile, Andre Burakovsky’s demotion comes as the Swedish forward has struggled mightily to get his shot attempts on net.

Over the last two seasons, Burakovsky is one of the worst forwards in the NHL at hitting the net.

As of Thursday afternoon, 256 forwards have skated at least 20 minutes and attempted at least five shot attempts at 5-on-5. On average, 58.7 percent of the shots attempted by these forwards have been a shot on goal (the rest have gone high, wide, or been blocked).

Among this group, Burakovsky ranks 246th, with just 28.6 percent (four out of 14) of his shot attempts being a shot on goal.

Last season, 48.7 percent of Burakovsky’s shot attempts at 5-on-5 were a shot on goal, ranking 343rd out of 352 forwards who skated at least 500 minutes.

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