The Washington Capitals went all-in for a Stanley Cup the last two seasons and this year’s offseason was the reckoning. The team, stuck in salary cap hell and facing an expansion draft, lost big-name players like Justin Williams, Marcus Johansson, Nate Schmidt, Karl Alzner, and Kevin Shattenkirk.
In early July, we brought you the news that, according to the Game Score stat, the Capitals shouldered the biggest losses of any NHL team during the offseason. Now the Goals Above Replacement model is forecasting a somewhat big step back for the Capitals going into next season.
Photo via Sean Tierney of @ChartingHockey
According to the chart, the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Capitals fall to the 11th best team in the NHL, but many of the franchises that jump ahead of them are Western Conference foes. In the East, the Caps place third and would remain a playoff team. But they are now on the same talent level as the Toronto Maple Leafs, Boston Bruins, New York Islanders, Montreal Canadiens, and Columbus Blue Jackets.
Big movers up the chart include Carolina (who missed the playoffs last season), Western Conference champion Nashville, and Patrik Laine’s Winnipeg Jets.
2017-18 GAR (as of July 15)
CAR is in a much improved position heading into next season.
CHI…the opposite. pic.twitter.com/XqTmzO0hlS— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) July 15, 2017
Now I’m not a hockey stat connoisseur like Pat, Peter, or Nathan, but there are a few caveats here. The Future GAR stat doesn’t factor age, rookies, coaching, or goaltenders.
The Capitals will have several rookies stepping onto the roster from AHL Hershey this upcoming season. That includes talented and well-seasoned first-round pick Jakub Vrana, who could fare well in a top-six role. The team’s defense will be a huge wildcard.
Among many other things that aren't factored, age isn't factored in here. So, I expect DET's position to be worse than this.
— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) July 16, 2017
just a total (for now) and nothing from coaching (or goalies). The flaws/shortcomings are many, for sure.
— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) July 16, 2017
It’s also good to keep in mind that GAR is a “catch-all” stat. Sometimes people think it’s the end of a discussion, but no one stat, even a catch-all, is good enough to stand on its own.
