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Caps drop the biggest game of the year: numbers for the morning after

Wednesday night, the Caps lost Game Four of the second round to the depleted Pittsburgh Penguins by a score of 3-2. While this was an intense game overall, there aren’t many highlights from the Caps side of things, with both goals coming in a span of fewer than two minutes in the second period, by Evgeny Kuznetsov and Nate Schmidt.

In general, the playoffs have been a tale of the impotence of the Caps offense. Once again, they dominated possession, besting the Pens in five-on-five shot attempts by a mark of 56 to 28. But for what feels like the umpteenth time, they couldn’t find the back of the net other than for a short span in the second period. Braden Holtby, while not by any means “to blame,” also continues to not be his elite self (he did have his moments though). While it’s tempting based on the stats to suggest that the Caps have been unlucky, it’s hard to really believe that, knowing the recent history of this team and watching that history repeat itself.

Key Stats

  • Despite more possession dominance, the Caps found ways to shoot themselves in the foot. Not the least of which were their five offensive zone penalties, one of which led to the Justin Schultz go-ahead goal and another of which put the nail in the coffin of their comeback hopes. The Caps also failed to seize a few power-play opportunities of their own, looking a combination of both disjointed and unlucky, with many flubbed passing plays and a few whiffs and posts on golden opportunities. Arguably, playing Brooks Orpik and Karl Alzner together was another shot to the foot, as they got burned on the opening goal (but had decent stats overall). That’s not even to mention the shot to the foot that came from an actual foot, with Dmitry Orlov kicking in what would be one of three crucial Pens goals.
  • Once again, the Pens were shot blocking machines. The Penguins blocked 24 of 72 total shot attempts last night (it felt like more), and the Caps missed another 10, damping their heavy on-ice possession advantage. That the Caps seem to have faced a veritable army of hot goalies and elite shot blockers in the playoffs over the last decade is one of the mysteries of the universe. But really, it might be something that they are doing.
  • The fourth line has generally not contributed this postseason. On a night when the Caps as a team went plus-30 in even strength shot attempts, the fourth line (to the extent that it even existed) was minus-one. Tom Wilson’s generally solid play and early scoring spree got him promoted off that line and since then the bottom trio has failed to produce any offense. A team should never be relying on their fourth line, but hoping for at least one goal through ten playoff games is reasonable, and I dare say, to be expected. The third line has also failed to come through with any meaningful offense — again.

Unsung Hero of the Game

It’s always tough to choose in a game like this, but there were some players on the Caps last night who really did seem to bring it and do their best. The whole second line of Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson, and Justin Williams had a strong night and were plus-one in goals. Nate Schmidt scored a goal, was plus-two in on-ice goals, and was plus-13 in shot attempts. Overall, those players were difference makers. They were just alone in being so on the Caps’ side of things, and couldn’t make enough of a difference on their own to get the “W.”

Trend to Watch

The Caps have lost a total of ten playoff series throughout their franchise history in which they led by at least two-games. They have been involved in seven different 3-1 series comebacks, have done so twice themselves and having been the victims five times (two more than the next most victimized team). They’ll have a shot now to do so again, and it’s win or go home for the next three games. We forgive you if you are feeling bleak — last night was as close to a must-win as they come.

Full Coverage of Game Four

Stats courtesy of NaturalStatTrick and Corsica.Hockey.

Photo by Joe Sargent/NHLI.

 

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