Thursday night the Caps beat the Blue Jackets 2-1 in the shootout on Russian heritage night in arguably the most important game of the season to-date (for both teams). The Caps generally kept the pressure on, and Sergei Bobrovsky asserted himself as a true Vezina contender. On the other end of the ice, Braden Holtby was equally stellar, with a save-of-the-year candidate on Boone Jenner. In the end, TJ Oshie continues to be money in the shootout, and Holts stood tall at the other end, giving the Caps the win.
Overall, this was the most shots the Caps have put on net all season at 45. It was important that they make a statement against the Jackets, and statistically they did. The Caps had an absurd 89 shot attempts on the board (in all situations) to 48 by the Jackets. Five-on-five shot attempts were 74 to 35.
Key Stats
- The Caps pressured the Blue Jackets early. Having played just the night before against the speedy young Toronto Maple Leafs (and losing that match), the Caps were presented with an opportunity to jump on the (hopefully) tired Jackets. And while they were a bit conservative out of the gates, the Caps eventually poured on the offense. Through the first period, five-on-five shot attempts were 29 to 13 in favor of the Caps and by the end of the second, the Jackets were getting doubled up 48 to 20.
- The top line was dominant last night… Despite some odd deployments elsewhere, we are still sure of who the top line is, and they were excellent. Their on-ice shot attempt differential at five-on-five was plus-15, and they went head-to-head with the Jenner-Dubinsky-Atkinson line. Alex Ovechkin has not-so-sneakily been upping his game lately, and he had another loud one, with eight shots on net and 17 shot attempts (all situations).
- …As was the top pairing. We are a little less sure who would be considered the top defensive pairing, but for now let’s call it Dmitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen. They have been a renaissance on the blue line, and last night they were a plus-15 in shot attempts while leading the blue line in five-on-five ice time. Orlov scored the Caps’ only goal, and while they were matched up against the Jackets’ top line, they weren’t on the ice for that lone goal against. All said and done, this pairing is one of the Caps’ deadliest weapons when it comes to tilting the ice in their favor.
Unsung Hero of the Game
Lots of guys to choose from here, but let’s give it to Nick Backstrom. His on-ice stat line was silly. He saw 31 shots in favor of the Caps and just 10 against, in 13:39 of ice time. That’s an average of more than two shot attempts per minute. Scoring chances were 12 to four, and shots on goal were 17 to six. Backstrom has been on fire lately, and it he’s been the driving force behind the top line’s recent dominance.
Trend to Watch
The season is winding down, which means it’s almost time for us all to start collectively freaking out and spending way too much time discussing the NHL awards. We previously made a case for Holtby as a Vezina finalist, and he likely still is (although Sergei Bobrovsky currently looks to be the favorite). But what about Nick Backstrom for Selke? We mentioned above that he’s been incredible lately, and the possibility has certainly gotten some airtime from Trotz and others.
The short answer is… probably not. As much as we’d love for Backy to get this award, his two-way statistics don’t quite stack up against the other Selke favorites. In terms of his raw five-on-five on-ice rate of shot attempts against (score adjusted), Backstrom is only 87th best in the league among forwards playing 750 minutes. First on that list (unsurprisingly) is Patrice Bergeron, out of 212 players.
But raw shot attempt rates are partially dependent on deployment, which also doesn’t help Backy’s statistical case. Below is the deployment of some perennial Selke favorites, and what stands out are the brutal defensive zone starts of Kesler and Koivu, as well as the excellent possession against tough competition by Bergeron. Faceoffs also come up a lot in the Selke discussion, and Backstrom is 47th best among forwards taking over 200 draws. Bergeron and Kesler are top-ten, while Koivu and Toews are top-twenty. Overall, Backstrom is having an elite offensive year, but statistically, it’s tough to make a case for him to win the Selke.
Full RMNB Coverage of Caps vs Blue Jackets
Stats courtesy of Corsica.Hockey and NaturalStatTrick.
Photo by Patrick McDermott/NHLI.
