Photo: Bruce Bennett
The Caps enter game four trailing the Islanders 2-1. Given that the Caps season doesn’t end if they lose game four, this game is not a must win. If someone tells you this game is a “must win”, please tell them they are factually incorrect. A loss would reduce their chances of winning the series though.
But, before the puck drops for game four, here’s a look back at the first three games, courtesy of usage charts from War on Ice.
Forward Usage
The first line has been deployed about how we’d expect. Favorable zone starts, but facing stiff competition.
It’s a bit surprising to see Marcus Johansson and Troy Brouwer facing such tough competition and zone starts relative to the third line, who has been tasked with facing the Islanders first line, when possible. Perhaps there haven’t been enough favorable zone starts to go around through three games, and they are all being hogged by the first line.
Defense Usage
Trotz seems to be getting his ideal deployments for his defensemen. The first pair has seen tough minutes, the third pair very favorable minutes, and the second line has been facing tough minutes, but not against the top competition.
Possession, Chances, and Luck
There’s a lot going on here, and three games of data allows for a lot of noise, but here are a few of the outliers.
- In term of possession, Brooks Orpik and Curtis Glencross are getting destroyed. The Caps also need more from Marcus Johansson and Evgeny Kuznetsov. On the bright side are the usual suspects (Ovechkin, Green, Backstrom), plus Joel Ward has managed to ride the wave of playing with dominant possession players.
- In terms of scoring chances, raise you hand if you thought Jay Beagle would be one of the best Caps’ forwards through three games. Put your hand down, liar.
- Hopefully, Brouwer and Tom Wilson, among others, will see a nice PDO bounce back before the Caps are bounced from the playoffs. Meanwhile, Eric Fehr, expected to miss at least two games, got out while the PDO gettin’ was good.
Generating Offense
What’s the point of having a chart with Alex Ovechkin included when one of the axis is individual shot attempts. The giant cluster of guys supports what I’ve said previously: The Caps lack of depth at forward is alarming and will likely be their downfall.
Hopefully a lot of those dark red circles (zero percent shooting percentage) will start to turn towards a pretty blue as the series progresses.
Game four draws nigh. Let’s go Caps.
