Ovi backchecking? You better believe it. (Photo: Luis M. Alvarez)
Jen Lute Costello of Puck Daddy recently wrote a nifty post about shot suppression. I’m paraphrasing her, but the basic idea is that there’s more to being a great possession team than simply having more shot attempts than the other team. While having more shot attempts than your opponent is the essential ingredient, it is optimal to also limit the number of overall shot attempts or “events” (the combined number of shot attempts between two teams in a game). Again, my paraphrasing does not do Jen’s great work justice, so I recommend reading her work.
The Capitals are a much better shot-possession team this season compared to last. But our optimism shouldn’t stop there. The Capitals aren’t just owning a higher percentage of overall shot attempts, they are also allowing fewer overall opponent shot attempts, so they’re owning the puck more AND better suppressing shot attempts against.
Just a reminder that when we are talking about shot attempts, it is for 5-on-5 play only.
The Caps have gone from owning 47.7 percent of shot attempts last season to 51.74 percent this season. Overall, there are 4.8 percent fewer overall shot attempts in Caps games so far (108.92 shot attempts per game last season vs. 103.7 shot attempts per game last season). This is not entirely surprising, as Barry Trotz’s Nashville teams were known for being low-event teams.
Looking at the forwards, we can see that there are some guys who are thriving more than others. Below are all forwards who have played 12-plus games this season, looking at shot attempts against per 60 minutes of play for last season and this season. The difference is at right.
| Player | 2013-14 SA Against/60 | 2014-15 SA Against/60 | 2014-15 Difference |
| Fehr | 55.93 | 43.42 | -12.51 |
| Ovechkin | 60.15 | 48.57 | -11.58 |
| Chimera | 60.46 | 49.85 | -10.61 |
| Ward | 58.81 | 49.56 | -9.25 |
| Backstrom | 57.58 | 48.36 | -9.22 |
| Kuznetsov | 58.83 | 52.45 | -6.38 |
| Latta | 46.89 | 42.21 | -4.68 |
| Beagle | 56.23 | 53.18 | -3.05 |
| Brouwer | 54.65 | 52.43 | -2.22 |
| Johansson | 57.83 | 55.88 | -1.95 |
| O’Brien | XXX | 41.70 | XXX |
| Burakovsky | XXX | 46.17 | XXX |
(Small sample size warning)
- What if I told you these numbers suggest something complimentary of Alex Ovechkin‘s ability to limit the opposition’s offense? Would your head explode, Mike Milbury?
- Eric Fehr has been the most improved forward, in terms of shot suppression, under Trotz. Of the 374 forwards to have skated 70-plus minutes this season, Fehr is ranked 27th in shot suppression. But sure, put him in the press box to send a message.
- I’ve ordered this in terms of the difference in shot suppression between season, but don’t let Michael Latta‘s spot on this table fool you. He was stellar in shot suppression during the Oates regime and is even better under Trotz. In the same group of 374 forwards, Latta ranks 21st in limiting shots. (Additional shoutout to Liam O’Brien, who is the 15th best forward in the NHL in shot suppression this season.)
- “Defensive specialist” and “first-line winger” Jay Beagle has seen one of the smallest improvements under Trotz and is the second worst Caps forward this season at suppressing shot attempts. Yes, you can point to zone starts, but Latta has faced very similar zone starts this season, so…
- For as much as we loved the Ward/Chimera combo last season, they sure did give up a lot of shot attempts. They weren’t terrible possession players in terms of differential, but it’s surprising that they were involved in “track meets” as Jen called them (a lot of overall shot attempts). This is the opposite of what I would have guessed.
Obviously none of these results exist in a vacuum (the defense is a major factor in this, which I’ll look at another time), but the fact that the results so far not only show Trotz turning the Caps into a solid possession team, but also a very good shot suppression team, bodes well for this team as the season progresses.
