Posts by Patrick Holden

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Stan Galiev Probably Won’t Be a Successful NHL Player

Photo: Addison Huber, 2010

The Caps drafted Stan Galiev in the third round of the 2010 draft. After failing to establish himself as even an AHL regular prior to last season, Galiev finally showed promise in 2014-15, posting 45 points in 67 games for the Hershey Bears and one goal in two games for the Caps. The skillset on display last season has given some high hopes for Galiev’s future in the NHL.

Josh W. (whom you should follow on Twitter) of Canucks Army recently wrote a useful post in which he establishes baselines for AHL prospects achieving NHL success. The rub is this: Despite Galiev’s strong showing in the AHL in 2014-15 and his high-end skill set, chances are he will not grow into an NHL regular.

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By Patrick Holden 5 years ago

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Over Analyzing Lines On the Third Day of Camp
CapsCampDayTwo_17

Photo: Amanda Bowen​

Let me be clear: I don’t care about the preseason of any sport, not even hockey. Takeaways from preseason are often worthless, for a wide variety of reasons. Intersquad scrimmages are even further down the ladder of things we should care about and read into. And, considering line combinations aren’t worth getting worked up about on a day-to-day basis during the season, no one should read much into lines from a scrimmage at training camp.
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But let’s do it anyway.

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By Patrick Holden 5 years ago

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The Caps Project to Be a Top-Ten Team, Maybe Better

Photo: Amanda Bowen

Editor’s note: We’re turning the site over to Don’t Tell Me About Heart for an educated outsider’s perspective and projection on the upcoming season.

How often does a team need to be called a dark horse until we can acknowledge they are simply good? I think the Washington Capitals are safely approaching that status for the 2015-2016 season. All the stars all seem to be aligning for the Capitals to have a strong year. Anytime you have a lineup containing a top-5 starting goalie, one of the leagues best playmaking centres and probably the greatest goal scorer in NHL history you are definitely starting off on the right foot. Add in the offseason acquisitions of TJ Oshie and Justin Williams along with the expected progression of promising young guns Andre Burakovsky and Evgeny Kuznetsov, that is a scary team.

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By Patrick Holden 5 years ago

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What Individual Point Percentage Can Tell Us About the 2015-16 Caps

Travis Yost recently discussed the utility of individual point percentage (IPP) in forecasting player performance. The article is a great introduction to IPP, so I recommend reading the entire thing if you’re not familiar with the concept.

Here’s a excerpt:

Another metric I like to look at is ‘Individual Point Percentage’ (“IPP“), which shows how frequently a player was awarded a point in an event his team (a) scored; and (b) the player was on the ice. Much like our on-ice save percentage example for defencemen, IPP regresses substantially towards league averages. On average, forwards usually receive a point on about 68 per cent of goals scored when they are on the ice. That number sits at about 30 per cent for defencemen.

Context is key: we simply can’t treat all players as equals in a hockey vacuum. Sidney Crosby(84.8 per cent) and Erik Karlsson (49.4 per cent) lead career IPP and it’s not a fluke – they’re constantly involved in the run of play, and as such, pick up extra points along the way. If we want to identify outliers, we must first observe strong deviations from the league norms, and then observe strong deviations from a player’s career norms.

Let’s apply this to the 2015-16 Capitals.

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By Patrick Holden 5 years ago

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TJ Oshie Gives the Caps More Net Presence Than Troy Brouwer

Photo: Amanda Bowen

The Caps’ trade for TJ Oshie was widely regarded as a win for the Washington. The Caps got the most skilled player in the deal and didn’t mortgage the future to do so. But there was also a countervailing argument, even from those who thought the Caps came out ahead in the deal, that the team was moving away from a “heavy” style of play and towards a more skilled, finesse game. Given the comings and goings of Caps’ forwards this offseason, this is partially true.

But one area often associated with a “heavy” style of play where Oshie, perhaps surprisingly, provides an upgrade over Troy Brouwer is net presence. Specifically: generating shots from inside the slot.

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By Patrick Holden 5 years ago

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Caps Invite Derek Roy to Camp on Professional Tryout Basis
St. Louis Blues v Buffalo Sabres

Photo: Bill Wippert

Per Mike Vogel, the Caps have invited Derek Roy to training camp on a professional tryout basis. Roy is a 32-year-old center who, after spending much of his career in Buffalo, spent last season with Nashville and Edmonton.

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By Patrick Holden 5 years ago

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In Context: Comparing TJ Oshie to the Caps 2014-15 Wingers
OshieMedia1

Photo: Amanda Bowen

Two weeks ago, I took a look at how Justin Williams compares to the Caps 2014-15 wingers. Today, it’s TJ Oshie’s turn. Here’s his HERO chart.

Story 1

Oshie is a top-six forward and a clear upgrade over the only roster player the Caps gave up to get him, Troy Brouwer.

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By Patrick Holden 5 years ago

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In Context: Comparing Justin Williams to the Caps’ 2014-15 Wingers
justin-williams-kissed

Photo: Bruce Bennett

On July 1st, the Caps signed Justin Williams, inking the top-six forward to a 2-year, $6.5 million deal. Peter included Williams’ HERO chart in an earlier post, but here it is again in case you need a refresher.

williamshero

Over the past three seasons, Williams has clearly been a top-six forward. While he’s soon to be 34, so concerns about him slowing down are valid, it’s reasonable to assume Williams will at least be a serviceable top-six forward for the next two seasons. This is a boost to a Caps forward corps that needed an upgrade.

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By Patrick Holden 6 years ago

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Why Caps Fans Should Be Excited About The TJ Oshie Trade
tjoshie

Have you finished running around the block and telling your neighbors that the Caps traded for T.J. Oshie? Now that you’re back inside, let’s talk about this. I’m sure we’ll have plenty more on Oshie and Justin Williams in the coming days, but here’s a wide-angle look at the newest member of the Caps.

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By Patrick Holden 6 years ago

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Free Agency Fiasco 2015: Open Thread
mike-green-on-top-of-the-world

High noon is almost upon us, and thus Free Agency Mania 2015 is near. As of 12 PM ET, all unrestricted free agents can sign with any team and restricted free agents can be signed to an offer sheet. It’s total mayhem.

In terms of the Caps, the team is still looking to add a RW to play in the top six. They are also likely on the hunt for a third-line center and a right-handed depth defenseman. Brian MacLellan has already said that he expects to be more active in the trade market than in free agency, but don’t rule out the possibility of the Caps making a move today. Still, it might be quiet. That’s okay.

Even if the Caps don’t make a move, some (soon-to-be) ex-Caps could find a new home today. Need a refresher on who those dudes are?

Player New Team Contract
John Erskine, age 35  ?  ?
Eric Fehr, age 29  ?  ?
Tim Gleason, age 32  ?  ?
Curtis Glencross, age 32 ?  ?
Mike Green, age 29  Detroit 3 years, $6 M AAV
Joel Ward, age 34  ?  ?

We’ll update this post with big news, but we’re depending on you to keep us informed in the comments. Go wild.
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By Patrick Holden 6 years ago

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