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Hey, Ya Think the Capitals Should Ditch an RFA to Get Tyler Bozak?

By Peter Hassett

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July 15, 2015 10:29 am

tyler-bozak-kessel

Photo: Ronald Martinez

Sometimes we get questions from readers and other times people just tell us to do stuff.

To be direct, it would be a terrible move to acquire Tyler Bozak because he’s not a very good hockey player.

I would’ve been fine with that response alone, but apparently this rumor’s got legs, so let’s get into it.

On Tuesday, CSN Washington’s Chuck Gormley suggested the Caps might be wise to walk away from Marcus Johansson after his upcoming arbitration and use the salary cap space (and a roster player and a prospect) to acquire one of the league’s most overrated players.

If Johansson, who is coming off a career-high 20 goals and 47 points, is awarded $3.8 million or more, the Caps could walk away from the forward and use Johansson’s allotted salary space on another player, like, say, Toronto Maple Leafs center Tyler Bozak.

Tyler Bozak is a special player. He’s not special because he’s good, which he’s not, but because he’s a sterling case study in how isolation affects hockey stats. Isolation is something hockey doesn’t do as easily as baseball, where it’s one batter versus one pitcher. In hockey, there’s too many dudes on the ice at once, so it can sometimes be hard to tell who’s a passenger and who’s actually driving play.

Hey, here’s a photo of Phil Kessel.

Phil-Kessel-USA

Toronto, in its infinite wisdom, played The Thrill, a truly special scorer, next to Bozak a lot over the last few years. It was Bozak’s proximity to Kessel that made Bozak look like a stud.

Bozak spent 86 percent of his 5v5 ice time with Kessel over the last two seasons. They did… okay together. Toronto scored at a rate of 2.76 goals per 60 minutes and allowed 3.07 goals, good for 47.4 percent, outpacing their possession at 45.7 percent thanks to some puck luck.

But when Toronto took Kessel away from Bozak, welp, Toronto got outscored 2-to-1 (2.04 goals for, 4.08 goals against) and had just 37.3 percent possession. They were awful.

There’s a lot nuance we could pore over, but if it’s okay I’ll just refer you to these pitiable and aggrieved Maple Leaf fans, who have documented this well:

  • “There is little or no evidence that Bozak is integral to Kessel’s production where as there is a lot of evidence that Kessel is integral to Bozak’s production.” – David Johnson / Maple Leafs Hotstove
  • “All evidence would indicate that offensively speaking Bozak is a total passenger on his line, who happens to benefit occasionally from being present when goals are scored.” – Steve Burch / PPP
  • “As bad as Phil Kessel is defensively, you can easily argue that Bozak is even worse.” – SportsFromTheSix / PPP
  • “But if Bozak skates without Kessel his offensive numbers whither to virtually nothing and his defensive results become abysmal.” – Burch / PPP
  • “Because out of the 154 NHL Centers who have the most ES minutes this year, Bozak ranks almost last – 150th – in the number of shots he takes per 60 minutes.” – not norm ullman / PPP
  • “There is no shred of objective data that exists that shows that Bozak is a reasonable option as a Top Six centreman in the NHL.” – Cam Charron / Leafs Nation (p.s. Cam works for the Leafs now.)
  • “There’s no chemistry there. If anything, there is biology, in the respect that Bozak is in a parasitic relationship with Kessel.” – Charron / Leafs Nation

No, Bozak is not a good fit for a Washington Capitals team that is looking for one last crack at the Cup before the window closes. Even if acquiring Bozak meant finding a release valve for Brooks Laich’s terrible contract, I can’t see him as an improvement– and if the Caps lose a utility roster player and a promising prospect or a draft pick, it’d be a scandalously poor choice.

A better and simpler choice would be to sign Marcus Johansson to a fair contract with a healthy term. Johansson’s not a lot to look at on the ice, but he’s a solid middle-sixer who has gotten better every season and gets the Caps power play into the offensive zone.

On Tuesday night, WNST’s Ed Frankovic didn’t advocate the Bozak thing, but he found Gormley’s Johansson scenario plausible.

I dunno. Aside from the draft, the Capitals have made a lot of great decisions this summer. I don’t think they’ll blow it now.

Update: Duh.